Another Beauty...How Long Can This Last?
Don't get your hopes up...there is no way this kind of warmth is meant for this world given the overall weather pattern and what is expected in the coming weeks. That said, this mild November has been awfully easy to take and this weekend will be no different with temps averaging above normal once again...nearing record warmth in spots today. What a delight.
High pressure in place over the Carolinas is wrapping in light westerly winds into New England today. After a somewhat mild start, cooler temps in valleys, highs will be climbing into the Lwr-mid 60's by this afternoon and will have some of us looking at the calendar wondering what day it is. A weak backdoor cold front in place across Northern New England will slide south later today. Much of the day we will be warming, but by mid afternoon, winds will shift from the west to the NE behind this front in places like NH, ME and NE MA and cool temps into the 50's.
This front will slip just south of the region tonight with winds shifting to the ESE direction. This should allow some low level moisture to back in overnight with increasing cloudiness overnight and lows in the 40's. The front will push back north on Sunday as a warm front and likely not to get past the MA border. A mix of sun and clouds Sunday with SE winds will keep temps in the 50's. Lwr 60's are possible south of the front in CT & RI, Mid 50's at the coast with Southern NH cooler in the lwr-mid 50's. Great weekend overall.
The transition begins heading into next week. The upper level ridge on the east coast will hold strong and help to slow the arrival of showers moving in from the midwest. A slow moving cold front will be pushing through on Monday with the risk of a few showers in the NW, but otherwise for most it is a day is dry with considerable clouds and breezy south winds with temps still above normal near 60-63.
Our main weather feature this week will be a low from the southern states tracking up through the Ohio Valley to the St. Lawrence Valley. Clouds will thicken in advance of the low with showers Tuesday becoming a steady rain by Tuesday night...and winding down early Wednesday morning. Cooler NW winds will direct cooler air in from Canada with temps in the 40's to near 50 Thursday and Friday. An energized shortwave will push through late Friday with a few snow squalls possibly in the NW with cool high pressure to return for the first weekend of December.
Consider this week ahead the transition week....as the overall pattern is going to flip to a colder side in December. No stopping it really. I can say that the oncoming colder air does NOT look brutally cold, nor does the pattern look particularly stormy at least through the 11th. Storms have been known to pop out of nowhere sometimes...but for now...it appears we will be gradually dipping our toes into winter. The lack of blocking weather in the upper levels of the atmosphere will prevent any big storms or harsh cold from developing for now...Mid-late December may have another story to tell.
