All Is Quiet...But Not Out Of The Woods
The week that was in forecasting is gone now. What we are left with is high confidence of a storm tracking far enough off the coast to have little impact for our region. In fact, I am calling for a great weekend...but also cautious to see if this storm has any more tricks up it's sleeve.
A deck of stratocumulus clouds has been sitting over Metrowest and Worcester county this morning. Brighter skies south of Boston towards the Cape. I anticipate these clouds to continue to break and eventually give way to some increasing sun. Calm west winds with temperatures similar to where they were yesterday or maybe a degree or two warmer. We are still in a chilly airmass for this time of year...so even though it is not AS cold...you will still want that jacket for comfort. Highs will range in the 33-38 degree range this weekend. Warmer Southeast of Boston..Upper 30's...Coooler to the Northwest..30-35
Clear skies and light winds will provide another night with lows dropping back into the teens, with 20's at the coast. Despite worries of an impending storm...we all know this storm is going to be too far offshore to do much of anything. Tracking about 300 miles southeast of Nantucket...this is a storm for the fish...but there are variables in play which just may be enough for a few flakes to fly.
Looking at upper level wind patterns, there is a a vort max sliding through New England Sunday afternoon to help enable lift and snowfall, but the northern and southern streams simply do not merge until well off the coast late Monday and Monday night. As this storm passes southeast of New England, the Northwest fringe of the storm may clip the Cape and islands with some light snow as shown in the 12 NAM by Sunday night.
The combination of instability with , water temps in the mid 40's with cooler air aloft and moistening NE winds at the surface could also promote ocean effect snow showers to develop...From Cape Ann the the South shore. The best chance of any accumulating snow will likely be found south of Plymouth, mostly on the Cape and Islands. This will depend upon a few ocean effect bands becoming established to cause a period of steady snow. Most of us will likely see very little if anything at all from this storm.
Warmer air will be wrapping around this deeping storm in the maritimes which will undergo cyclogenesis with the merging of streams. Warm air advection snow showers will back into Maine and Northern New England Tuesday...before trying to push further south Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday morning could feature a period of steady snow before our storm begins to pull away and wraps in gusty colder NW winds on the back side. Oddly enough...this midweek disturbance has a better chance of giving us accumulating light snow.
Dry and cold to end the week...but we will have to track another low likely tracking south of New England Christmas day. Could it snow on Christmas? Maybe...but the way things are going...this will likely stay south as too. Such a waste of cold air...
