All Eyes On Friday
Tranquil weather continues to top our weather headlines thru Thursday. Sunny skies today and lighter northwest winds will allow for the mercury to rise into the middle and upper 30s. Thursday will kick-off with sunshine, but a warm front pushing northward will be the culprit for thickening cloud cover in the afternoon. The clouds will become productive Thursday night with rain/snow for western and southeastern Mass.. Friday's storm set-up continues to be quite a challenge. The EURO and GFS are still 'sticking to their guns'. The EURO is still trending towards a warmer, more westerly/northerly track while the GFS is showing a colder solution as the center of the low would cross southeastern Mass before heading out to sea. Here's a pic of the latest (warmer) EURO ...
Here's the (colder) GFS model (06z) ...
The NAM has just started to forecast this far out. This morning's 06z NAM model run is halfway between the EURO and GFS which would still bring several inches of snow to areas north and west of 495. Here's a look at the NAM ...
After analyzing this morning's model runs, my best guess for this time of year (sun angle, more daylight hours, etc.) is...
***Thursday night thru early Friday morning: The onset of precipitation will include light rain/snow Thursday night across western and southeastern Mass.
***Mid-morning thru Afternoon: The rain/snow mix will transition to all rain from the Cape/Islands up to the Pike/Boston. A rain/snow mix will continue for areas inside the 495 corridor. Areas north and west of 495 have the best chance of staying all snow for the event, which could produce several inches of snow.
***Friday evening: All precipitation returns to snow for the tail end of the storm.
Overall, the GFS is the outlier with the NAM/EURO portraying more reasonable solutions with the atmospheric set-up, lack of cold air infiltration, and the trough digging to our west. This is going to be a storm that will also require diligent 'nowcasting'.
Melissa :)
