A Powerful Punch of Wind & Rain
Low clouds and fog are breaking this morning...partly sunny skies will eventually emerge by midday and afternoon. Clouds will hold tight along the south coast with onshore southerly wind, with brighter skies inland. Highs will be climbing into the Lwr-mid 70's today as we will be warming ahead of an approaching cold front. SNH and the Merrimack valley will again be the warm spot climbing into the upper 70's. The Cape and islands with mostly cloudy skies will be cooler in the lwr 60's. A dry day for all and the pick of the weekend.
A cold front approaches tonight as clouds will be filling back in. This front will trigger some late day showers or even a thunderstorm for northern and western New England through midnight. After midnight, showers will weaken spreading east ward...so scattered showers are possible east overnight. The front will then stall over the Canal or just off the coast Sunday morning with winds shift to the NE. Onshore winds with cloudy skies will make for a cool raw Sunday with highs near 50-55. After a cloudy damp morning, Once the rain begins...temps will be falling into the 40's
We are tracking a short wave pushing through the Plain states which is helping to dig in a trough in the eastern half of the US. The trough extends all the way down into the Gulf where an area of low pressure is beginning to form. This low will be directed up the east coast on Sunday. This low will begin to deepen as it approaches the mid-Atlantic. This low will be drawing in moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic. SW winds aloft will push this moisture plume right into New England with rain starting by midday, filling in by afternoon and becoming heavy by night. NE winds will start to pick up with gust to 30 mph. A Gale watch is in place for outer coastal waters.
By Sunday night the main axis of rainfall will be moving through with torrential downpours at times. Upper low over the Ohio Valley will be digging into the Mid-Atlantic with the trough becoming negative. These upper level wind will help to steer the surface low just west of New England through early Monday. This will be a good soaking rainfall of 2-3+" with maybe a few locally heavier amounts inland...lighter amounts of 1-2" are expected for the Cape & Islands. No big flooding problems are expected thanks to the dry conditions...by hydroplaning on the roads may be a problem Sunday night in downpours.
A strong low level jet just above our heads will be gusting from the SE at 50-70kts. This could mean gust to 40-50 mph down at the surface with the peak winds occurring late Sunday Night and early Sunday morning. Winds will fall off fairly quickly MOnday as the storm lifts into upstate NY and into Canada. Seas will pick up to 10-15 feet off the coast, but no coastal flooding problems are anticipated.
It will be a quick rain and wind storm with a real punch Sunday night and early Monday. You will be seeing the rain quickly tapering off Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, the rain will be over and clouds will start to break as winds shift back over to the SW allowing temps to climb to near 60 by the end of the day.
The trend will be for drier and more seasonal weather for the rest of the week in the 50's to near 60. A few weak disturbances may sometimes form a few showers. Hard to time if our next best chance of showers will be Thursday or Friday. A progressive pattern with scattered showers...with dry and cooler weather with increasing sunshine heading into next weekend...the final weekend in April.
