A New England Landfall...
Irene is still four days away yet confidence is growing for a New England landfall sometime on Sunday, most likely in the evening as a decaying hurricane. The projected track from the National Hurricane Center takes the storm through the Bahamas as a major hurricane then grazing the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Saturday and then in the Northeast on Sunday.
There are several aspects to be concerned with if this track and intensity forecast holds and judging by the most recent runs of all the models there is no reason to doubt it...rain, wind and surge. Rain amounts could exceed 5" in bout a 6 hour period that is enough to produce widespread river and stream flooding in Massachusetts along with basement and street flooding making some roads impassable.
Watch Todd Gutner's forecast
With the projection for a decaying hurricane moving through sustained winds over 40mph with gusts over 80mph will be likely...and that may be a bit conservative if we indeed take a direct hit. I guess I would equate it to a longer lived severe thunderstorm...torrential rain and damaging wind that just lasts longer and encompasses a wider area (not so localized).
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The storm surge is usually the most overlooked aspect of a hurricane but is the one that can be the most damaging...water litterally shoved ashore by the strong winds and the intense pressure difference. This occurs near the water's edge and can flood out multiple city streets or large chunks of a city or town (think Hurricane Bob and Providence, RI). The most susceptible areas would be on the East side of the eye...this means that right now Narragansett and Buzzards Bay along with all south and southeast facing harbors, beaches and inlets could have problems...throw in the highest tide of the month Sunday night and this could be the worst flooding we've seen in a long time along the coast (think Scituate last Winter but for many more towns).
The current official track would mean that basically its whole life will be spent over water with very little land interaction so the only way it will weaken is from sheer or colder water. We expect both of those to play a role when it gets up into our latitude and hopefully it won't be flying through at that point so that the colder water up here (<80 degrees water and a hurricane begins weakening) and stronger prevailing winds to rip off the tops of the T-storms will be able to decay the storm enough before making landfall.
Nothing is set in stone yet and track and intensity can change...and likely will as it already has many times...but most of the guidance points to a New England landfall. So start thinking about what you will do if you are without power for several days...do you have enough batteries...water...ice to put in coolers to keep milk for the babies cold...gas if you have a generator...things like that. I'm not saying rush out and get all this stuff but just make a list of necessities so that if Irene is still expected to nail us you can be efficient in you preparations and last-minute errands.
