A mixed bag holiday weekend
Doesn't get much better than what Friday evening delivered, does it? Finally some drier air worked its way into the region on westerly winds, and helped bring back the sun. Unfortunately, as soon as the sun came back out, we looked westward to more unsettled weather heading our way.
The main point about this weekend's forecast is that you probably will not have to preemptively cancel plans. But you *will* need to think about a contingency if your weekend includes a family BBQ or heading out camping. A warm front will snake its way eastward tonight, tossing high cirrus clouds overhead in the process. As we head into Saturday, leftover storms should still be meandering across NY, VT, and Western Mass.
I don't think we'll see much 'full sun' on Saturday, but we'll be more in and out of a mix of clouds. One thing is certain - it will be warm and muggy. In fact, with the air that's heading in aloft (above the ground), we would be able to hit 90+ with full sun! But the clouds obscuring some of that solar energy, we'll manage the low/mid 80s instead. Dew points will continue to rise again back into the mid/upper 60s. And with an atmosphere full of water vapor, any storms that develop would have the potential for some torrential, tropical downpours.
The highest chances of seeing rain are expected to be on a line from SW Maine-Manchester-Worcester-Hartford. As you head east toward Cape Ann, Boston, and the South Shore...those chances will decrease a bit. And in terms of SE Mass, Cape Cod & the Islands - I think you'll manage a dry Saturday. You may not get 100% sun, but the storms should stay inland.
On Sunday that same front will be in a weakened state, lingering across New England. At the same time, the jet stream will amplify and dig in across the Great Lakes. And with a warm and moist environment to work with, more showers and storms could easily spark up. Again the theme is not a washout, but a few towns will get soaked.
By Monday that trough will dive into New England, and this is likely the least desirable weather day of the Labor Day Weekend. Showers and storms will be likely, and SSE winds should keep an abundance of clouds around too. The cold front associated with this trough will take its sweet time passing through, keeping showers around on Tuesday and perhaps even into Wednesday morning.
There appears to be a markedly cooler and drier air mass lurking for the end of next week, so we'll see how that pans out. It may be our first good burst of Canadian air in a while...but still quite a ways out! Here are Friday's 850mb comparisons between a few models, for all you weather geeks out there :-)
