A Brief Mild Breeze...
Cool damp cloudy conditions with east winds helped to keep temps mostly in the 50's today. Generally about 1/4-1/2" fell with locally heavier amounts in the showers. Most of the rain has pushed off the coast for a mainly dry evening, though we could see a few more scattered showers after midnight. Patchy dense fog could form during the early morning hours, especially inland as dewpoints begin to rise. The front which has been stalled south of New England all weekend will finally get on the move on Monday and begin to lift through the region. Plenty of low clouds will remain. Any morning fog will begin to lift by mid morning. Much of the day will be fairly dry, but there still is the risk of a few widely scattered showers in the breezy and muggy air which will be shifting in as this front lifts into Northern New England.
Winds will be shifting to the south and picking up during the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Maybe a few breaks of sun may pop out during the mid afternoon hours ahead of the front. Highs will be warmer with the breeze from the south as highs will climb into the Lwr-mid 70's Winds could gust over 30 mph especially at our south facing coastlines.
The main event will be a quick moving cold front pushing through Monday night with briefly heavy downpours. Some moisture for the remnants of Karen are try to be entrained into this front. Because the front is progressive, we are not anticipating any flooding issues. But there will be a thin line of fairly intense downpours and the potential for some stronger thunderstorms to form along this front as it pushes through late Monday night. Rainfall will range from .50-1.50" further inland. Any downpours could mix down some strong winds from a low level jet and possible produce some damaging wind gusts. This will be a very quick passage which should not last more than an hour or two in the middle of the night.
By Tuesday morning, the front will be pushing off the coast and building high pressure will be sliding over us with plenty of sunshine, and cooler winds from the NE. The time frame of Tuesday to Thursday looks great with cool onshore winds keeping temps cooler at the coast with gradually moderating temps inland heading to the weekend.
The fly in the ointment is a coastal low coming from off the southeast Carolina coastline which is showing some tropical characteristics, including some left over remnants of Karen. Models continue to show something different with each model run as they scramble on how to deal with this new batch of energy in the atmosphere. High pressure of us should help keep the low far enough away from us, so that most of the week will be great and seasonal with temps in the 60's. By Friday, a batch of showers may back into SNE as the low approaches the mid-Atlantic states. Clouds and showers could affect SNE around late Thursday, Friday-Saturday with cool east winds. Rough surf will develop at the coast with dsetady onshore winds. Drier weather is expected farther north...especially north of the Pike. It is really hard to tell how it will eventually play out, but there is something out there which may want to try to bring in some foul weather before the week is finished. Any stronger and we could be dealing with something a bit more significant. A lot of these storms have been missing...so We'll be watching...
