5 Things That Could Prevent Patriots From Earning AFC's No. 1 Seed
BOSTON (CBS) -- The Patriots are, as they say, sitting pretty. Despite September hiccups in Miami and Kansas City, and despite an underwhelming showing in Green Bay, the Patriots are 11-3, sitting atop the AFC standings and in line to secure the No. 1 seed.
In that sense, New England controls its own destiny. Winning the next two games will secure a first-round bye and ensure that Bill Belichick's team will be hosting a divisional playoff game and, if all goes well, the AFC Championship Game.
Considering the Patriots' 2013 season came to a screeching halt on the road in Denver last January, and considering the Broncos figure to be right there in the mix this upcoming January, that No. 1 seed is vitally important. And though the Patriots don't need any outside help to earn the top spot in the conference, doing so won't come easy.
Some of that resistance will come from the Patriots' upcoming opponents -- the Jets and the Bills -- while other factors will play out in various NFL cities over the next two weeks.
As the season enters Week 16, here are the five things that could stand in the way of the Patriots earning that No. 1 seed.
5. Dandy Andy
The path to the No. 1 seed becomes all the more easy if the Broncos lose one of their two games. If that happens, the Patriots need only go 1-1 to lock up that top spot in the AFC.
And considering the Broncos host the Raiders, the equivalent of a football wasteland, in Week 17, the only real opportunity for the Donkeys to lose a game will come on Monday night in Cincinnati.
The Bengals are 9-4-1, tenuously holding on to first place in a tight AFC North race. The Bengals need to win this week. The problem? Well, the problem is that they're the Bengals, so winning is oftentimes easier said than done. Especially in prime time.
When the Bengals play under bright lights on national TV, they're 6-14 during Marvin Lewis' interminable tenure as head coach.
The brilliant head coach offered this after his most recent nighttime failure: "It does confound me. It does."
In prime-time games this season, the Bengals are 0-2, outscored by New England and Cleveland by a combined score of 67-20. Andy Dalton has completed 25 of his 57 passes (43.9 percent) for 290 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. The quarterback now owns a distinctive 2-6 record in prime-time games.
So if the Patriots hope to get some outside help in the quest for the No. 1 seed, they'll need it to come from Dalton and Lewis.
That's unlikely.
4. Wild Wintry Weather
The Patriots live by the mantra of "Do Your Job," and part of doing your job is to simply "Control What You Can Control." And what these clichés are saying is that even if you're a deity like Tom Brady or Bill Belichick, you can't change the weather. So you can't worry about the weather.
Nevertheless, those of us not on the Patriots can worry about such things, and as the Patriots head into two late December games, weather is always a potential factor.
Granted, wintry weather hasn't exactly slowed down Brady's team in recent years. In fact, the Patriots seem to relish the opportunity to play in the snow, with a 36-7 drubbing of the Bears in 2010, a 59-0 trouncing of the Titans in 2009 and a 47-7 blowout of the Cardinals in 2008 (sans Brady) coming immediately to mind.
Strong winds haven't slowed down the Patriots either, as Brady was able to throw for 344 yards and three touchdowns on a windswept night in Foxboro last year against the Broncos. Peyton Manning threw for just 150 yards, two touchdowns and one interception that same night.
The Patriots also handled a Week 17 matchup with the Bills last year on a day that saw the turf at Gillette Stadium gather puddles. LeGarrette Blount ran for 189 yards and two touchdowns that day.
Still, weather is unpredictable, and it can therefore affect games in ways we can't always forecast. And though it's early in the week, there is an 80 percent chance of rain for this Sunday's game in East Rutherford.
3. Desperate Times
The Patriots, on paper, are a much better team than the Buffalo Bills. They're a better team on the field, too, as evidenced by New England's 37-22 victory in Orchard Park back in early October.
Yet if circumstances play out in a way that has New England meeting Buffalo in Week 17, with the former playing for the No. 1 seed and the latter playing just to get into the playoffs, the desperation of the lesser team may prove to be a difference-maker.
And to be sure, the Bills are not some terrible team that will have only desperation working for them. That defense is the real deal (more on that later), and the offense is at least serviceable.
So if the Bills come to Gillette with a 9-6 record, looking to reach 10 wins for the first time since 1999 (!!!!) and make the playoffs for the first time since 1999 (!!!!!!!!!), the job becomes that much more difficult for the Patriots.
2. Rex's Last Stand
The Jets are an abject disaster. There should be no mistaking that.
Rex Ryan will be unemployed by New Year's Day. That is likewise not up for debate.
Yet it's always been clear that through the ups (two AFC Championship Game appearances) and downs (pretty much the entirety of Ryan's other four years in New York), the players on the Jets roster love Rex.
And so, with the head coach's final home game just happening to be against the rival Patriots, it's not out of the realm of possibility to imagine the Jets putting on their best show of the season. After all, it was just two months ago when the 1-5 Jets were lining up to kick a field goal to potentially beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Chris Jones' left hand denied that opportunity, but still, a two-point margin of victory for New England was tighter than anybody expected, and the Jets may bring an even better performance this time around.
Last Sunday, the Jets pulled off a 16-11 win over the equally hopeless Titans, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson handed Rex a game ball in the celebratory locker room.
Rex may be 3-8 in his career against the Patriots, but he's a pretty smart football coach. Expect him to empty his arsenal and draw up some pretty wild play calls this weekend in an effort to at least go out on a winning note. And expect the Jets to do their best to get it for him.
"I do like competing against him," Ryan said this week of Belichick. "And he knows one thing: He's going to get my very best, that's for sure. I'm looking forward to this one."
1. Buffalo D
You can forget about all of that "emotion" stuff and all of the unquantifiable factors listed above. The reality is this: Buffalo's defense is legit.
As mentioned earlier, Buffalo may enter Gillette Stadium in Week 17 needing a victory to earn a playoff spot, or at the very least keep alive their hopes of earning that playoff spot. And provided New England and Denver both win their respective Week 16 matchups, the Patriots will enter Week 17 needing a win to lock up the AFC's No. 1 seed.
The game will mean something, and for the Patriots, winning won't be easy.
Since Week 12, the Bills are allowing just 12.5 points per game. They've held Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers to zero touchdowns in consecutive weeks, two quarterbacks who had thrown for touchdowns in 51 and 14 straight games, respectively. The Bills rank fifth in the NFL in total defense and they're tied for fourth in the NFL in points allowed per game (18.1). They also rank second in interceptions (19) and they lead the NFL with 49 sacks. They've held opposing QBs to just a 73.9 passer rating, which ranks second in the NFL. And in terms of turnover differential, the Bills are plus-10 on the year, just one behind New England. The Bills are ranked second overall in the NFL with 30 takeaways.
While it is true that New England's offense was able to put up 396 yards on Buffalo back in October, with Brady throwing for four touchdowns and a season-high 361 yards, that was a long time ago. Since that game, the Bills have not allowed anyone to throw for 300 yards. In fact, they've allowed more than 200 passing yards just twice since then, holding opposing quarterbacks to just 181.5 yards per game since Week 7.
Add it all up, and it's clear that if the Patriots must win their Week 17 matchup in order to secure home-field advantage, the Bills' defense presents a very formidable challenge.
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