We are on the verge of a warm up but it isn't here just yet. Cold air damming is occurring to the north and west of Boston especially in Northern New England. Heavier cold air is hugging the ground and it will take some time for the warmer air flowing over it to erode the cold layer. Many towns in Northern New England and even some in Southern New England are at or below freezing and while the next clipper is still several hours away and the current forcing over New England is only producing some very light precip there is still concern for icy roads later tonight and tomorrow.
The clipper is currently over Chicago and has a lot of upper level support. Models show that the mid level shortwave develops a negative tilt and spins up a new surface low (or secondary) in SE Mass tomorrow morning. This is an interesting development...it suggests that the cold would be even more difficult to dislodge and even though the Winter Weather Advisory is only in place for Northern New England, I'm now concerned that the valleys in central/northern MA will see some light icing too. Either Way, please be careful on the roads later tonight and tomorrow morning. Waves of showers will move across the area and a southerly flow for SE Mass and the Eastern MA coastline will boost temps close to 50. The front will be through by early evening setting up a dry first night with temps sliding into the upper 30s...not bad!
The arctic blast expected early next week looks a little less fierce today...instead of daytime highs in the teens we are now looking at highs in the 20s...still bitter and with the wind it will be...but not as bad as earlier anticipated. Despite the cold, there is still no sign of a storm, at least not over the next 10 days...pretty incredible.
For a truly remarkable recap of this turbulent 2011 weather year scroll down to Barry's blog from this morning...a great read! Have a happy and healthy New Year...