BLOG: Chance For A Winter Storm
The chance for a White Christmas is looking less and less, but there is still the CHANCE for a winter storm - although we want to stress the word CHANCE.
There is not a whole lot going on weatherwise before we get to this weekend, but let's go through it first. Some flurries were flying early today as that weak storm we have been tracking the last few days passed us to the north. That storm is now gone, allowing sunshine to break out. Winds have turned around to the northwest and will really pick up tonight and tomorrow, bringing in a new round of cold air. We will still get to the upper 30s tomorrow, but the wind chill will make it feel like it's in the 20s. The winds will start to back off on Friday as the weather settles down temporarily. Then, all eyes turn to the southwest - and what will happen this weekend.
One thing does look certain from yesterday - if we do get a storm, it probably won't happen until Sunday through Monday. There is the chance for some flurries on Christmas around here, but that's about it. At that time, this next storm will still be getting organized well off to the southwest of us - tracking out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. What happens next is the big question.
There are two different pieces of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere that will play into this storm. The first piece of energy will be coming down through Mid-West Saturday, while the second piece moves eastward along the Gulf Coast. They will both swing eastward toward the Carolinas on Sunday. Where (and if) these pieces phase together will determine the strength and placement of the storm - and it is from there that we can determine snow potential details.
At this point, there is a range of solutions. One solution is that the two pieces of energy phase and then turn up the coast. That would give us a legit storm with significant snow. However, there is also the solution that these two phase and explode just offshore. That would create a big winter storm, but just offshore for us...just missing us like Hurricane Earl did this summer. Then, there is another solution that would not phase these two pieces of energy until they are already offshore - which would give us absolutely nothing.
It is not unusual for the computer models to offer different solutions like this. That is why you see so many different forecasts - it's basically everyone's personal interpretation of what is going on. The physics involved with the model that is giving us nothing right now, struggle with these types of storms for us. However, that same model has been more accurate with predicting the last two storm misses. So that is why there is not much confidence in this forecast right now.
We do know that if we do get this storm, it won't happen until Sunday through Monday. That is still 4 days out. So stay tuned and check back in for the latest with this one...because we will be staying on it through the holiday.
