Bob Haynie: Orioles Over Royals In Six
The American League Championship Series begins on Friday night and it features two teams that have waited a long time to get there.
For the Baltimore Orioles, it has been a 17-year drought. The last time they made it--in 1997--the wire-to-wire Birds of manager Davey Johnson were upset by the Cleveland Indians in six games.
It has been a generation ago since the Royals were this close to getting to the World Series. The year was 1985 and the K.C. ball club managed by the late Dick Howser came back from a 3-1 deficit in games to overtake the favored Toronto Blue Jays. The Royals would then knock off the St. Louis Cardinals to win the franchise's only World Title.
In 2014, the ALCS will feature two teams that are very similar in many ways.
Both Baltimore and Kansas City are good defensively. The Royals are especially strong in the outfield. LF Alex Gordon, CF Lorenzo Cain and RF Nori Aoki might be second to none when it comes to glove work. The Angels got a good dose of that D in the ALDS.
A year after committing only 54 errors, the Orioles finished the regular season with a fielding percentage of .986 which was tied for third-best in baseball. CF Adam Jones, RF Nick Markakis and SS J.J. Hardy are all former Gold Glove winners and are still playing defense at a high level.
The Orioles and Royals also feature starting rotations that are better than advertised and good enough to win. The Kansas City four-man of RH James Shields, RH Yordano Ventura, LH Jason Vargas and former Orioles RH Jeremy Guthrie posted an ERA of 3.56. The Orioles will counter with a rotation of RH Chris Tillman, LH Wei-Yin Chen and righties Bud Norris and Miguel Gonzalez. Those four combined to sport an ERA of 3.44.
The bullpens are closely matched and are both among the best the majors. The Royals bullpen boasts an ERA of 3.30 and the Orioles come in even better at 3.10. K.C. closer RH Greg Holland has 93 saves over the last two seasons and been awesome in 2014 postseason. LH Zach Britton took over for Tommy Hunter in May and has thrived in his bullpen role with 37 saves during the regular season.
Where the two teams are different is on offense. In particular, in the speed and power departments.
The Royals led the majors in stolen bases with 153 during the regular season and have added 12 more in the playoffs. The Orioles were last in steals with 44.
The Orioles do have a major advantage when it comes to the long ball. Baltimore has led the majors in homers the last two seasons and they bashed 211 in 2014. Kansas City hit 95 HR's to finish last in baseball in that department.
I see the Baltimore Orioles managed by Buck Showalter as being an advantage. Royals manager Ned Yost has been criticized for not being a good strategist, but he has his team four wins away from the American League pennant.
In a playoff series, crazy things can happen and the best doesn't always prevail.
However, in 2014 ALCS, I see the better team winning.
I'm going with the Orioles in six games as the home run bats and their manager lead the way.
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