Sports

The Cowboys And The Idea Of 'The Fast-Rising QB'

January 19, 2016 / 11:50 AM CST / CBS Texas

By Mike Fisher

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IRVING (105.3 The Fan) - The 2016 NFL Draft will be held April 28-30, but it's never to early to watch the inevitable Rise Of The Quarterback.

Mike Bacsik of 105.3 The Fan's "G-Bag Nation'' wondered the other day if the Cowboys shouldn't be a little scared of the idea that somebody like North Dakota State QB Carson Wentz is suddenly popping up on the radar. … because of a fear of the "rapidly-rising QB.''

Bacsik is onto something in the sense that quarterbacks do eventually float to the top of the draft; in the last 15 years, on average, three QBs get taken in the first round.

But increasingly, there are really no "shocks and surprises'' … just "supply and demand.''

Go back to Dec. 13 and you see our own Dane Brugler writing on CBSSports.com that "Cal's Jared Goff and Memphis' Paxton Lynch are the top two names and both have a great chance of landing in the top 10.''

Brugler seems to have nailed that.

Dane also wrote that while his forecast had Michigan State's Connor Cook going in Round 1 just behind Goff and Lynch, Wentz "also has a chance to wind up in next spring's first round.''

And voila, fast-forward to the Cowboys — holding the no. 4 slot in the first round — and prepping for the Senior Bowl and the attached buzz that has them excited to see Wentz up-close.

So, if you are a Dane Brugler-level observer of the process, you're not especially surprised.

Now turn back the clock to a couple of other examples and you see the process has, at least in the modern era of internet-access scouting reports, been similar to this year's.

In 2012, Ryan Tannehill was talked about, just before the draft, as a top-four guy. But all along, for a year before the selection process, the Texas A&M product was seen as a first-round candidate and eventually went No. 8 to Miami. The jury is still out on his greatness, but he was never "not on the radar.''

Flip back to 2004. Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers were all eventually taken in the top 11. Controversy abounded, with Manning actually being taken by the Chargers despite telling them he wouldn't play there … all of which led to a swap to the Giants, who'd taken North Carolina State's Rivers.

A surprise? No. Dating back to November of 2003, Rivers was seen as a first-round prospect, leaving maybe the only disappointment from that draft the slippage of Roethlisberger, who famously showed his ire and disappointment live in the Green Room as he dropped to No. 11 overall and Pittsburgh … which has worked out alright for him.

And indeed, San Diego and Rivers and New York and the Giants have been successful matches, too.

The lesson learned here: The general public sees a Rivers, a Tannehill and a Wentz as a "fast-riser.'' But the Draftniks, including our own Jeff Cavanaugh, who thinks highly of Goff but is saying here in mid-January that he wouldn't be completely shocked if Wentz is a Cowboy at No. 4? To them, the rise isn't fast; it's steady, it's continuous, and it's annual.