Storms through midweek for North Texas before slightly warmer temperatures
NORTH TEXAS — Showers and thunderstorms continued after sundown Sunday evening, and we'll see how long they can survive.
Over the next 24-48 hours, the stationary boundary, a mid-level impulse from northern Mexico, and the Gulf low will all increase our chances for isolated to more widely scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon on Labor Day. A few could contain heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Lightning is also more likely during the midday thru evening timeframe.
Here's the NAM3km model again, showing the heaviest showers and storms beginning around midday to our southwest Monday. The most likely areas will be west of the I-35 corridor, and especially southwest of the Metroplex. Isolated flash flooding is possible in these areas if storms start to proliferate or stay over the same locations.
The disturbance moving north from Mexico should also provide an additional focal point for more impact in the atmosphere and heavier showers and storms, depending on its movement.
Activity should generally wind down near or after sundown.
Overall, the rain trend continues to favor points west and southwest, but most areas should see some healthy rain in the next 7 days.
Latest trends in the tropics have decreased some of the attention on the possible Caribbean disturbance next week. This is short-term good news. Right now, chances don't look quite as strong as they did a day or two ago. Either way, we'll still keep an eye on it.
The western Gulf disturbance just off the Texas coast has been downgraded to only 10% of formation, and will likely only increase our atmospheric moisture; no organization is expected from this wave.