November weather worth watching, what the models agree on for the next tropical storm
NORTH TEXAS — Atlantic hurricane season does not end until the end of the month. Statistically, there is only about 5% of the hurricane season left when looking at the number of storms that occur historically in the last few weeks of the season.
However, there is a storm brewing in the Caribbean right now. It is forecast to become a named storm (Sara) in the next 3-4 days.
Normally meteorologists would not be talking about a storm track a week out. What grabbed Jeff Ray's attention is that two of the main long-range models are in close agreement in their forecast of Sara for the middle of next week. This is almost unheard of for a tropical system this far in advance. Both models have Sara as a major hurricane striking Florida next Wednesday.
Florida has suffered three hurricane hits already this season. Major hurricanes (category 3-5) are extremely rare in November in the Atlantic. There are only about ten examples in the last 100 years.
The last one to hit Florida in November was ETA in the historic season of 2020 when there were more storms than names (hence ETA from the Greek alphabet).
There is still a high degree of uncertainty. The First Alert Weather Team will continue to monitor and provide updates on this storm.