Mild temperatures before rain chances increase next week in North Texas
NORTH TEXAS – Two major systems are on the horizon for next week, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season so far.
PTC Nineteen has formed in the Caribbean. The latest NHC track shows it moving west into the Yucatán, but doesn't extrapolate further. They're likely waiting for more guidance, but most major models and ensembles currently bring it into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, potentially into Florida. Historically, this could be significant for November. No threat to the western Gulf states.
Chilly starts are ahead the next two mornings! Turn those heaters on or get the fireplace going!
Next week, the first storm system should arrive with a Pacific air mass behind the front. This means colder air won't arrive until the Arctic front later in the week. Instability appears limited, even though the dynamics support more organized and severe storms, so the severe potential appears low at this time. We'll advise if this changes.
Finally, the stronger front and shot of colder air will arrive late in the week, and Thursday and Friday mornings could both be quite cold. We'll have to watch to see if our first area-wide freeze is in play next week with more consistent model guidance.
Following the more powerful northerly cold front late next week, we could reach near freezing for the first time this season. This is very close, historically, to our average first freeze date.
7-Day Forecast: Chilly mornings, steady warming, and major changes next week with two fronts and rain/storms.
Have a great evening!