"Likely R" To "Lean R": What this means for the Texas Senate race between Cruz & Allred
New ratings by the Cook Political Report show the Texas Senate race between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred has become more competitive. Eye on Politics reporter Jack Fink speaks with the candidates running in one of the few purple districts in Texas: State House District 70 in Collin County. Plus, the race for Texas House Speaker heats up. A conservative Republican legislator who changed his mind explains why he no longer backs Speaker Dade Phelan. This and more in the latest episode of Eye On Politics. (original air date: October 6, 2024.)
Texas Senate race becomes more competitive
Early voting in Texas starts two weeks from tomorrow, and a respected firm that predicts national elections says the Texas Senate race between Republican incumbent Ted Cruz and Democratic Congressman Colin Allred has grown more competitive.
The Cook Political Report moved the race from "Likely R" to "Lean R".
On its website, the organization defines "Likely" as: "These races are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged." The Cook Political Report describes "Lean" as: "These races are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage."
The four most recent polls in the Texas Senate race listed by Real Clear Politics show Cruz leading Allred by 4.75 percentage points. The rating change from the Cook Political Report comes about a week after the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced it is injecting millions of dollars into Allred's campaign for TV ads.
We asked Republican and former Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams and Democratic political consultant and Grand Prairie Deputy Mayor Pro Tem Junior Ezeonu about the state of the race.
Williams told Jack that Texas remains a red state. "We're not even close to being a swing state or close to being a battleground state. We're red, solidly red, and that's not going to change in this election cycle."
Ezeonu agreed that Texas isn't a true swing state yet and said turnout is always key. "Can you get the voters out, can you energize the base and then get those moderates, swing voters that may not like Trump, may not like Cruz and want to look at someone else."
Endorsements in Senate race
Joey Reed said his endorsement of Colin Allred over Ted Cruz for U.S. Senate was an easy decision for him to make. When he and his family needed help in 2019 to get their son Trevor released from Russia, Reed said Senator Cruz was the first person they called, but that he didn't help them at all.
"It's the direct interaction that we had with Ted Cruz and his failure to assist us in any way when everyone else in the Congress did, and especially all the Congressmen from Texas from both parties." Reed recorded a TV ad for Allred and said as a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the North Texas Congressman was supportive.
"So, we need more people like Colin Allred, who will work with the other side to come to a compromise and something that you know both sides can live with."
In a statement Friday, the Cruz campaign told CBS News Texas, "Senator Cruz was incredibly relieved for Trevor and his family when he was released from wrongful detention in Russia and safely returned home."
The campaign also said Cruz "has been instrumental in bringing home American hostages from Lebanon and Venezuela and is fighting daily to secure the release of Mark Swidan from China."
Watch the story:
Watch Jack's interview with Joey Reed:
Congressman Allred has also picked up endorsements from former members of Congress, including Republicans Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. Senator Cruz is backed by the Democratic Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg, the Texas Association of Business and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
The Chamber's Executive Vice President and Chief Policy Officer, Neil Bradley said at a news conference last month in Carrollton, "Senator Cruz, for the accomplishments that he's already made for the State of Texas and the nation and for his commitments on policies going forward, is the clear cut candidate if you believe in jobs, economic growth, and American prosperity."
Purple district in Texas: The fight for House District 70 in Collin County
One of the few purple districts in Texas is up for grabs on Election Day. State House District 70 is an odd-shaped district that consists of mostly Plano, but also small portions of Allen, Richardson, and far North Dallas — all in Collin County.
It's purple because of how the district was drawn during redistricting in 2021 and how the district voted two years ago. Former Democratic Congressman Beto O'Rourke beat Governor Greg Abbott here 53%-46% in 2022. Democrats also won for Lt. Governor and Attorney General but Republican Comptroller Glenn Hegar slightly beat his Democratic challenger.
In July, Governor Greg Abbott told CBS News Texas the House District 70 seat is one of three House seats he believes Republicans will flip.
Jack recently sat down with Democratic State Representative Mihaela Plesa and her Republican opponent, Steve Kinard, to discuss the district and key issues.
Watch Jack's full interview with Rep. Mihaela Plesa here:
Watch Jack's full interview with Steve Kinard here:
Race for Texas House Speaker heats up
The contest at the Texas Capitol for House Speaker is intensifying.
Dade Phelan, current Speaker, is facing a challenge from Republican Representative David Cook of Mansfield.
Cook recently released a list of 48 House Republicans who are supporting his bid after he was chosen to challenge Phelan over four others in the GOP who had also announced their candidacy. Democratic Representative Ana Maria Ramos of Dallas has also said she is running, but it's unlikely she will win because Republicans outnumber Democrats in the House, 86 - 63.
There is one vacant seat.
Conservative Representative Matt Shaheen of Plano recently switched his choice for Speaker from Phelan to Cook. He said he made his decision based in part on what he called an "unfair influence" that the pro-gambling lobby has in the House.
Watch Jack's interview with Rep. Matt Shaheen: