Strong to severe thunderstorms, flooding, tornadoes possible for North Texas
Things are quiet across the metroplex Sunday night, and it is expected to stay that way until Monday morning.
The Storm Prediction Center placed a level 2-3 risk across North Texas for Monday, favoring our northeastern counties for the heightened severe risk. This is significant for a day-two risk.
Monday timing and details
The latest high-resolution models are speeding up the line of thunderstorms that develop Monday but a few are still holding it back just a bit. A "QLCS" could form (a quasi-linear convective system, which is a broken line of more intense cells that can produce both damaging wind gusts and brief, spin-up tornadoes along the leading edge).
The best estimation is that the first cells and initiation could occur in our western counties around 8 - 10 a.m. and move through the DFW metro between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m.
These storms should intensify fast as they push eastward. and could generate a few tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings.
First, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh develops the first cells in that 8 - 10 a.m. timeframe. These cells should be surface-based and feed off of warm/humid air at the surface, allowing them to develop quickly and produce fairly robust updrafts. One or two of these could be severe, before noon even.
Next, the HRRR starts to congeal these cells into more of a QLCS but still maintains some separation between them. The more separation, the weaker the overall line's wind threat, but the greater the individual threats associated with each.
As these gradually form into more of a line, the overall straight-line wind gust threat will increase.
Finally, the line should push east fairly quickly and continue to intensify. This model also shows the frontal boundary forcing up some elevated, more marginally strong-to-severe storms later after the main event. These would not be surface-based, and therefore, weaker.
Here's another good model's interpretation. It has smaller cells developing to our west, a little later, say 10 a.m. - noon. Then, the QLCS forms in the early afternoon and moves through the metroplex between 12 - 3 p.m.
If this model is correct, and storms push through later, there is a higher likelihood of overall severe weather, as the storms will feed off of more daytime heating and instability. This would not be good news for the afternoon in North Texas.
Tropics
As if we didn't have enough going on, potential tropical cyclone 18 has formed and is progged to move into the Gulf this week.