Trump's margin of victory in Texas is largest for a president-elect in 20 years
President-elect Donald Trump's projected win in Texas in the 2024 presidential election was not a surprise, but the size of his victory was greater than polls had indicated. Trump scored the biggest margin of victory in a presidential race in the state in two decades.
As of Wednesday morning, Trump was ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by 1,604,749 votes, with 99% of votes in. Trump won 6,558,319 votes, or 56.2% statewide, compared to 4,953,570 votes, which is 42.4% for Harris.
The last time a Republican president won by that much in Texas was in 2004, when George W. Bush won reelection. Bush, a former Texas governor, beat Democrat John Kerry by 1,694,213 votes, securing 61% of votes compared to Kerry's 38%. That was a larger margin of victory than during Bush's first run in 2000, when he beat then-Vice President Al Gore by 1,365,893 votes — 59% to 38%.
The last time Trump was on the ballot, in 2020, he beat Joe Biden in Texas by 631,221 votes, with 52% of the vote compared to Biden's 46%. In 2016, he beat Hillary Clinton by 807,179 votes — 53% to 43%. Twelve years ago, Republican Mitt Romney defeated then-President Barack Obama in Texas by 1,261,719 votes, 57% to 41%. In 2008, then-Arizona Sen. John McCain beat Obama in Texas by 950,695 votes, 55% to 44%.
Ted Cruz wins comfortably after narrow 2018 race
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz also had a big night in Texas, beating Democratic Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas by 943,352 votes. Cruz won 6,136,316 votes, 53%, while Allred won 5,156,903 votes, 44.6%, with 99% of votes in.
Cruz fared much better than his previous election in 2018, which was a good year for Democrats. The senator won reelection that year in a close race against former Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso with 51% of the votes compared to O'Rourke's 48%. In 2012, Cruz beat Paul Sadler with 56% of votes compared to Sadler's 41%.
Pre-election polls miss strong Republican support
The results in both races may lead to renewed questions about the accuracy of pre-election polls. While polls predicted Trump and Cruz would win Texas, they underestimated the margins of victory. Going into Election Day, Trump was up by nine percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average, but he won by nearly 14 percentage points. Cruz was up by 4.4 percentage points, but he won by more than eight percentage points.
Top issues for Texas voters
The top concerns and issues on the minds of Texas voters this election mirrored what people in other states felt, according to pre-election polls: the economy and border security, which has been a top concern for a decade in Texas. Trump and Cruz focused on those issues.
Abortion and reproductive rights were further down the list. It became a more prominent state issue after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. Allred made abortion a central part of his Senate campaign, blaming Cruz for the state's strict laws. That message likely didn't resonate. Allred and Democrats want to codify abortion protections into federal law, but the votes aren't there to pass it in Congress.