Cold front brings rain chances and cooler temperatures to North Texas
NORTH TEXAS — The front is on its final approach and sits just to the northwest of the metroplex Sunday night.
Shower and storm activity has gradually diminished along the leading edge as was expected with the loss of daytime heating and instability; however, an approaching "impulse" in the jet stream should keep at least some showers and storms alive along the front as it moves through. Keeping chances in for this evening, but gradually decreasing through the morning hours.
Feels like temperatures by Monday afternoon show a definitive improvement, but there will still be some uncomfortable humidity around, especially in areas more south and east.
Tropics
The National Hurricane Center Atlantic increased development odds for Invest 97L now to 50% by Tuesday and 80% through the next week. The growing trend appears to be that we will have "Helene" in the Gulf by late this week, at least as a Tropical Storm.
A Hurricane is certainly in play, but a lot will be determined after it enters the southern Gulf, where buoys are still running very warm. Model guidance is continuing to push this east, towards Florida.
Upper air over the U.S.
The large upper-level trough still dips south from Canada early this week, and potentially interacts with Helene out of the Gulf, late week. The resulting model guidance continues to show a dynamic upper-level interaction between the two, resulting in a prolonged unsettled period over the southern plains and the southeast US.
This is great news, keeping rainfall opportunities open, and cooler/drier air potentially swirling in from the north by next weekend.
Can you believe it's almost time for the State Fair?
The first weekend should have northerly flow over the metroplex, bringing in drier air and cool mornings, with afternoon highs only in the low 80s, trending to the upper 80s by Sunday. Not bad.