1984 All Over Again?

We have a cold front coming through tonight but the rain chances are under 10% for the Metroplex.

We are three weeks into September and its been extremely scant in rain. In fact we are close to logging the driest September on record:

Thirty years ago in 1984 we were in a weak La Nina event. This year it appears (currently at 60%-65% chance) we are heading INTO a weak El Nino event.

There are some similarities to the two years however. When we look at the data from January 1st to September 21st we find both years dry and with typical temperatures when compared with the last 115 years of records:

It should also be noted that both Atlantic Hurricane seasons had hurricane tracks that dominated the east coast. 1984 was an "active" season with weak storms. The most damaging storm was Hurricane Diana that hit the North Carolina shore as a Category Two. So far in a very UNACTIVE season the only Hurricane to hit the U.S. was Arthur; hitting almost the exact same spot Diana did 30 years before also as a Category Two.

Could we use the similarities as a predictor of the upcoming winter? As we debate that look at what the winter of 1984-1985 delivered for north Texas:

The winter produced 5.1" of snow at DFW over four events. That made it the 2nd most snow we had in any winter over the last 35 years.

-Jeff Ray