Sierra Snow Lab: 'Weather whiplash events' will not break drought's tight grip
SAN FRANCISCO -- In terms of snowfall, the Sierra is off to a good start this year, but the big question remains -- will the momentum continue and give California what it needs to make a dent in the drought.
Tucked away deep in the woods in the Sierra, there is someone who has a theory of how this winter will play out. His name is Andrew Schwartz, and he's the lead scientist and station manager of the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab.
This year, he hopes Mother Nature proves his theory wrong.
"This winter is looking a lot like last winter," he told KPIX. "We're looking at warmer than average conditions, drier than average conditions. We've had a lot of snow so far early in the season. That builds a really nice base for what we can see for the rest of the season, but with that being said, we also had the second largest October on record last year with 4 feet of snow, and then we ended up just at average. So, this is a great start, but we want to see more coming through."
At the lab, Schwartz keeps a close eye on weather and climate trends.
"The Central Sierra Snow Lab is a laboratory that studies all things weather, water, climate - really - if it has to do with our water resources, atmosphere, or hydrological system in one way or another, we're looking at it," he said.
"California needs about an extra year of precipitation to get us out of this drought, which means that needs to be either two full years of precipitation this next winter, or maybe have that spread out over the next couple of winters."
"So, it's really important that we get a deep year because ultimately, all this snow turns into our drinking water, it turns into our agricultural water, it turns into the water coming out of our faucets and taps."
A steady winter to build a strong snowpack would be a great place to start. But it's tough to know what to expect when average conditions are no longer the norm, according to Schwartz.
"Recently we've been seeing these weather whiplash events throughout snowfall seasons," he said. "We're going right from one extreme to the next."
Schwartz points to last winter as an example.
"We went from record-breaking October - the second deepest on record - one of the driest Novembers on record, record-breaking December - the most snowfall we've ever seen - then the driest period ever from January through March," he said.
"We're seeing those weather whiplash events. We've seen them a little bit already this year, but not to the same extent," he continued. "A lot of that is natural variability, but a lot of that too is climate change enhancing that natural variability. So, we don't see a land of averages anymore. It is these, kind of extremes, that bounce from one way to the next."
These conditions make managing the drought more difficult, according to Schwartz.
"For the most part, we base a lot of our water management on average conditions," he said. "When those average conditions don't occur, it makes our models less accurate, and it makes our water managers' jobs a lot harder."
The lack of average conditions can make things harder in other realms of life, too. Many businesses in towns throughout the Sierra, like in Truckee, have historically relied upon tourists and visitors coming up to the mountains to see the snow.
"Places like this coffee shop and other places in town rely on the tourism aspect of people coming in," said Lizzi Hereford, who works at Dark Horse Coffee Roasters. "When we don't have any snow, the draw to a smaller town like this is not quite as intense."
There is plenty of snow in the Sierra right now, some ski resorts decided to open early as a result.
"We've had a lot of snow so far early in the season," Schwartz said.
He says there's a nice base in place for the snowpack. Only time will tell if winter decides to prove him wrong - and he sure hopes that's the case.
"I hope I'm wrong about low snow forecasts all the time," he said. "It's really important that we do have a good winter and that we get as much snow and that its as normal in terms of temperature and melt as possible."