First El Niño Weather Pattern Since 2010 Arrives, But Far Too Weak To Help With California Drought

WASHINGTON (KCBS) – A long awaited El Niño has arrived according to forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, but meteorologists said it is too weak and has arrived too late to help drought-stricken California.

Mike Halpert, Deputy Director of the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said they first saw signs that El Niño might develop in March of 2014. He told KCBS he never imagined it would take year to finally develop.

Halpert describes this as a "weak, weird and late" version of El Niño and said not many places are expected to feel its effects, including California.

"I'm afraid that given [the fact] we consider this event weak, which it certainly is, and the fact that in an annual cycle fence, [California's] rainy season is winding down, I'm afraid that this is going to go in the books as too little, too late," Halpert said.

Widespread or significant global weather pattern impacts are not expected, but Halpert said wetter-than-normal conditions may appear along the U.S. Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, although he said it is hard to ascribe the expected wet weather over the next few weeks to El Niño.

El Niño is marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean near the equator.  The last very strong one was 1997-1998 and was known for providing heavy rainfall in the West, especially California.

Halpert said this gives them a good opportunity to further study El Niño weather patterns.  "It's certainly one we're going to study, to try to understand why it's been so difficult for this to develop and really why it's been so difficult over the past number of years to see a healthier, stronger event," Halpern said.  "As far as predictability from this, that will depend on whether this persists going forward through the spring, summer and fall."

Forecasters said there is a 50-60 percent chance that El Niño conditions will continue through the summer.

In:
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
• National Weather Service
• California
• Washington
• Drought