Crime, cost of living fuel continued exodus away from big cities
Worries of crime and other quality-of-life issues have led to many families relocating from major cities to more rural, quieter parts of the country.
In San Francisco, longtime residents are at an inflection point.
"I hope there are some changes. More and more people have had enough of it. It's unfortunate but it's also intolerable," said San Francisco resident James MacFarland.
Residents on both coasts say high profile crimes and public outbursts are driving young families out of cities. Oliver Azcarate and his family moved out of Los Angeles 4 years ago, after growing weary of city-life.
"We started feeling like we needed to be in an area that was more secure," he said.
"I was a little more scared at the time to go on walks with my kids and even in strollers around our neighborhood at the time," said Sarah Azcarate, Oliver's wife.
The pandemic sent young families in particular fleeing to suburban or even rural areas across the country. New data and analysis show young families still haven't returned, as the population of young families living in large cities continues to shrink.
According to U.S. Census Bureau data, San Francisco's under-five population has dropped by 15 percent since the start of the pandemic. LA county is right behind San Francisco at 14 percent.
"It's the high priced metros on the east and west coasts that are feeling this the most," said Connor O'Brien.
O'Brien is a research and policy analyst at the Economic Innovation Group, a bi-partisan D.C. think tank which spearheaded a recent analysis. "The country is aging as people are having fewer kids, but that's happening much faster in major cities than in the rest of the country," said O'Brien.
The decision to leave is nuanced. For many, like the Azcarates, skyrocketing housing prices are a major deciding factor.
"We were getting our rent raised incrementally and it was becoming more and more and more," said Azcarate.
According to a recent analysis by Hilgard Analytics and Zenith Economics, residential permitting in Los Angeles plummeted by nearly 20% in the first half of this year. Things have similarly slowed in San Francisco, with just 108 new units of housing being permitted.
By moving farther away from the city center, Azcarate has found cheaper housing, and peace and quiet for his family.
"Having them being in a place that has a better balance of nature and urban is the right mix for us," said Azcarate.
Since 2020, 2.7 million residents of large urban counties have moved away, twice as many as in the three years leading up to the pandemic.