'Emergency' Bay Area bridge toll hike proposed to ward off approaching transit fiscal cliff

SAN FRANCISCO -- Transit advocates have been issuing dire warnings about what will happen if Bay Area transit agencies don't get a huge influx of cash soon. But now, some legislators have decided that the best way to save transit is to force those who don't use it to pay for it. 

Transit agencies have not wanted to cut their operations but ridership revenues are way down, so they're looking at a huge financial cliff, a combined $2.7 billion through fiscal year 2027-28. Advocates have been beating the drum for a bailout to keep the systems fully operating, but the amount the state is considering would only cover a portion of that. 

 At a press conference on Monday, State Sen. Scott Wiener announced a new proposal to help bridge the gap.

"SB 532 is a temporary, emergency increase in bridge tolls over the next five years on the seven state-owned bridges," he said. "That's all the Bay Area bridges except for the Golden Gate Bridge, which is its own entity. It will increase tolls by $1.50 for a five-year period. That will generate, over five years, about $900 million and will help us avoid cuts."

The problem is, after the pandemic, there are simply fewer people commuting to places like San Francisco. That spells big trouble for an agency like BART, which relied heavily on rider fares to cover its cost of operation. 

Gone are the days when the platforms were jammed, and commuters packed into trains like sardines. Metropolitan Transportation Commission spokesperson John Goodwin doesn't think they're coming back.

"Look, I don't think you're going to see the kinds of crowds that you'd see up until March of 2020," said Goodwin. "I think those days are gone."

So, with ridership on all forms of transit unlikely to fully recover, the idea of a greater public subsidy is being looked at as a given. The bridge toll hike would be the first tax designed to pay for the everyday operation of transit. 

But as he filled up his car near the Bay Bridge, commuter G.V. Basbas thought the drivers - especially low-income drivers - need to be considered.

"Well, I think there needs to be conversation, especially including those who have to do the commute, those who will be paying the tolls, as opposed to those people who are pushing the legal paperwork," he said.

If the bill passes, the $1.50 increase would raise the current bridge toll to $8.50. But another one-dollar toll increase is scheduled for 2025. The toll hike has been proposed for five years as a way to make it past 2026. That's when Sen Wiener says they will probably attempt a large regional tax initiative to permanently fund public transit, taking it out of the hands of legislators. 

There was talk about an initiative in 2024, but Bay Area political strategist Eric Zell thinks that's off the table.

"A lot of focus in 2024, in terms of ballot measures, is going to be focused on housing. And I think transit has taken a back seat," said Zell.

He said voters will be waiting to see if the transit experience can improve in the next three years. So, what are the chances that people who are not currently using public transit in large numbers would be willing to tax themselves to preserve it? Zell said they're actually pretty good.

"What we have found with transportation measures, particularly around transit, is that people that drive will actually vote to tax themselves to get OTHER people, who are driving, off the road and into transit," he said.

So, there you have it. It seems the secret to getting everyone behind public transit is to promise people that the other guy is willing to use it.