Arizona, Utah Battle For Control Of Pac-12
By Andrew Kahn
The hype that existed for the first match-up between Arizona and Utah, on Jan. 17, has only grown for Saturday’s showdown. Arizona has lost once since then, Utah twice, but both remain atop the Pac-12 and in contention for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The first match-up
Arizona dominated the second half to win 69-51 in Tucson. Stanley Johnson scored all 18 of his points in the second half. He’s not your typical freshman as far as talent and strength, and Utah couldn’t contain his slashing and offensive rebounding later in the game. As a team, Arizona grabbed 53 percent of its misses in that game. T.J. McConnell hit 8 of 10 shots and Brandon Ashley added 14 for the Wildcats.
Utah shot just 7 of 22 from inside the arc. Delon Wright got off to a quick start, scoring Utah’s first seven points, but finished with just 10. McConnell is a terrific defender but does give up four inches to Wright; depending on who else is on the court, Arizona could put Rondae Hollis-Jefferson on Wright at times.
What’s new?
To answer the above question, not much. Since the first meeting, Arizona lost by three to Arizona State but enters this game on a five-game win streak after an 82-54 victory at Colorado last night. Utah lost road games to UCLA and Oregon and beat Arizona State 83-41 last night, allowing just nine points in the first half. The Wildcats and Utes are still 1-2 in the conference in offensive and defensive efficiency. Utah is still deadly from three-point range (40 percent in league play) while Arizona continues to struggle (33 percent).
When Arizona has struggled, it’s been because its frontcourt has struggled. Kaleb Tarczewski has played better lately and freshman Dusan Ristic is having more of an impact. He had four points and five rebounds in 12 minutes against Utah last time but has totaled 19 points on 7 of 9 shooting over Arizona’s last two games. Utah is a very balanced offensive team and needs to remain so if it wants to beat Arizona. In poor offensive performances on their recent Oregon road trip, only one Ute reached double-digits in each game.
Prediction
No matter the result of tomorrow’s game, Arizona is likely to get the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament given the tiebreaking procedures. Arizona might remain in the mix for a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament even with a loss, while Utah could creep into the discussion for a 2 seed with a win.
That’s not to say the Wildcats won’t be motivated. But cranking up the defense—which is what makes Arizona an elite team—on the road in front of a sell-out crowd against a team seeking revenge might not be so easy. And besides, Utah has shot-makers at every position. The Utes have lost 11 straight in this match-up, meaning they haven’t beat the ’Cats since joining the Pac-12 in 2011. But I think that streak ends tomorrow. Only a blowout would surprise me, so I’ll go with Utah 68-66 with the hope of seeing Round Three in Vegas.
Andrew Kahn is a regular contributor to CBS Local who also writes for Newsday and The Wall Street Journal. He writes about college basketball and other sports at AndrewJKahn.com. Email him at andrewjkahn@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter at @AndrewKahn.