49ers' visit gives Packers a chance to damage playoff hopes of postseason nemesis
After losing to San Francisco in the playoffs three of the last five seasons, the Green Bay Packers wouldn't mind seeing the 49ers get left out of the postseason entirely.
The Packers (7-3) could damage San Francisco's playoff hopes Sunday by beating the 49ers at Lambeau Field. San Francisco (5-5) dropped to .500 after losing at home to the Seattle Seahawks, though the 49ers remain just a game behind the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West.
"I think we're motivated to keep winning more than anything," Packers center Josh Myers said. "Obviously, they have knocked us out quite a bit. There's that extra motivation behind it, but at this point, we're just trying to churn out wins."
Green Bay is third in the NFC North and two games behind the Detroit Lions, but the Packers appear on track to at least earn a wild-card playoff berth. History suggests their path to a potential Super Bowl would get much clearer if the 49ers aren't standing in their way.
The 49ers trailed 21-14 in the fourth quarter before rallying to beat the Packers 24-21 in the divisional playoffs last year on Christian McCaffrey's 6-yard touchdown run with 1:07 left. Now it's the 49ers who are struggling to protect late leads, as they've blown fourth-quarter advantages in three games against divisional opponents.
"You could look at, 'Hey, we're three possessions away from being 8-2,' but you can't really live like that," 49ers tight end George Kittle said. "Those are the mistakes that we've made to be 5-5. It's not exactly where we want to be. It is frustrating. The nice thing is we have seven games left to go out there and play Niners football and take advantage of those opportunities."
Green Bay's recent history of playoff frustration against the 49ers also includes a 13-10 loss at Lambeau Field in the 2021 divisional playoffs and a 37-20 road defeat in the 2019 NFC championship game.
Even the Packers who weren't around for last season's playoff loss realize what this game means.
"I think one of the first meetings that I was in here, we had a conversation about the Niners beating us," said Green Bay safety Xavier McKinney, who joined the Packers this season. "So I understand how important it is, and we all do."
Both teams must figure out how to convert red-zone opportunities into touchdowns.
The 49ers are scoring touchdowns on just 48.8% of their drives inside an opponent's 20-yard line to rank 27th in the NFL. The Packers are slightly worse in that regard, scoring touchdowns on 48.7% of their red-zone possessions to rank 28th.
In their 20-19 victory at Chicago on Sunday, Green Bay drove to the Bears 5 without scoring on two separate series.
Kittle expects to play Sunday after missing the Seahawks game with a hamstring injury, but four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Nick Bosa's status is uncertain after he hurt his left hip and oblique in that game.
Seattle scored both of its TDs after Bosa left in the third quarter with an injury and averaged 2.7 additional yards per play after he got hurt.
Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander didn't play in the second half of the Bears game due to a knee injury that also prevented him from playing in a Nov. 3 loss to Detroit.
Green Bay's defense feasted on turnovers the first part of the season, but hasn't been as effective in getting those takeaways lately.
The Packers have 19 takeaways – already exceeding their 2023 total – but haven't forced any turnovers in their last two games.
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan hasn't eased McCaffrey back into the lineup in his return after missing the first eight games with Achilles tendinitis. McCaffrey has played 91% of the 49ers' offensive snaps the past two weeks.
Jordan Mason, who rushed for 685 yards during McCaffrey's absence, has just five snaps on offense the last two games. Shanahan said he'd like to get Mason more opportunities, but it's hard to take McCaffrey off the field.
Green Bay nearly lost to the Bears because of its third-down struggles on both sides of the ball. The Packers were 1 of 5 on third-down opportunities, while the Bears went 9 of 16.
The Packers' defense could have a tough time correcting that problem against San Francisco, which has converted 45.4% of its third-down situations to rank fourth in the league.