Wednesday Warning: Running the ball, winning the turnover battle, and Kenny's development
Welcome to the Wednesday Warning - each Wednesday, KDKA-TV Sports' Josh Taylor takes you through what you need to know for that upcoming Sunday's Steelers game.
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) - The Steelers' plans this season were inexplicably changed from "win now" to "prepare for the future" when head coach Mike Tomlin made the change at quarterback from free agent signing Mitch Trubisky to rookie Kenny Pickett during halftime of Week 4 against the New York Jets.
But the results of that change have not created a relative change in the win column.
Such is to be expected when prioritizing the development of a quarterback selected in the first round of the NFL draft, one who is expected to be the future leader of the offense.
However, even though a personnel change has happened, it doesn't mean the team's objectives have to change that dramatically. If anything, they become more important than before the change at quarterback.
The team's premise for this season was a simple one, rooted in three factors: running the ball, playing winning defense, and winning the turnover margin week to week.
The problem is, they haven't executed all three parts of that plan consistently in the majority of the seven games they've played this season, making the simple appear to be far more complicated.
But regardless of the changing circumstances surrounding the team, if the Steelers hope to achieve the goal of bringing Pickett along sooner rather than later, it would make sense to simplify things as much as possible to allow him to grow and adapt faster. Staying the course on their original principles and sticking to the simple things helps with that, and the most pressing issue at the moment for the offense is ball security.
"We've got to take care of the ball every week," Tomlin said in his weekly press conference on Tuesday. "That's our mindset. In terms of our agenda, our preparedness, our focus, how we develop that plan and [Pickett's] role in it, ball security is a significant component week in and week out."
In the two full games Pickett has played since being named the starter, he has attempted 96 passes, completing 66 of them for a very favorable completion rate of 68.8%.
But on the other hand, a rookie quarterback throwing nearly 50 passes per game is far from ideal, and even more tenuous when you include his four interceptions in those two games. That kind of pass-heavy workload becomes far too risky and could cause more harm than good in a young quarterback's development.
Surely Pickett's job could be made easier in that department with improved results in the running game, but the inconsistency to produce in that area has become, ironically, consistent. The Steelers' best rushing output was 31 carries for 119 yards during that loss to the Jets, and their only other 100-yard rushing game as a unit was Week 3 in Cleveland when they ran for 104 yards on 22 carries, but most of that came in the first half.
If there's a glaring criticism among the many voiced about the Steelers' offense and coordinator Matt Canada, a lack of commitment and production in the run game must be near the top of the list. As much as the passing game (and lack of production thereof) has been a target of fan and media frustration, the strength of Canada's offense has historically been in the run game. Without it, the offense's ability to move the football - especially throwing to the deepest parts of the field - becomes significantly weaker. Whether it is the performance of the offensive line or running back Najee Harris (or both) that needs to improve, the offense will continue to stagnate without it.
Then there's the defense's role in the equation, equally inconsistent, but perhaps the most promising to date. After allowing 20 points or fewer in the first two games of the season, they've followed up with two similar performances in the past two weeks. Removing the 38-point explosion at the hands of the Buffalo Bills in Week 5 - where Tomlin admitted afterward the team as a whole got "smashed" - they have allowed 19.67 points per game, two points below the league average of 21.7. But it's also when they allow points as opposed to how many that have also significantly improved.
The defense's recent uptick can be directly linked to the combined nine points they've allowed in the second half in the last two games to offenses featuring dynamic playmakers like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Mike Evans and the Miami Dolphins' Tyreek Hill, both of whom the Steelers kept out of the end zone. It's also worth noting both of those offenses were also held to only one touchdown scored apiece, which any defensive coordinator besides the Steelers' Teryl Austin would likely consider a significant achievement.
But then there's the part that's been lacking with the defense: the inability to create turnovers despite multiple opportunities. In the first two games of the season the Steelers' defense had six takeaways, but have a total of only four in the five games since. That lack of turnover creation plus the offense committing 10 turnovers of their own in that same five-game span flies in the face of any effort to win the turnover margin, a very critical detail that helps teams win games on any level, especially this one.
To boil it all down to these three critical areas and the effect on the win-loss column, consider the seven teams in the league who currently have five or more wins: this week's upcoming opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles (6-0) the New York Giants (6-1), the Bills (5-1), the Jets (5-2), Dallas (5-2), Kansas City (5-2) and Minnesota (5-1).
When we compare those teams' approach to run game efficiency, turnover margin, and scoring defense, the gap between the Steelers and the teams at the top of the standings is much easier to spot.
Of the aforementioned seven teams, all of them are rushing for at least four yards per carry, while the Steelers average only 3.7. Kansas City has an even turnover margin, but the other six teams have forced more turnovers than they've committed, while the Steelers are -2 in that area (12 turnovers on offense, 10 on defense).
In points allowed, all but one of those teams have scoring defenses in the league's top 10. Kansas City's 25th ranking is the outlier: they've actually allowed more points per game (24.6) than the 23rd-ranked Steelers (23.1), but they also score a league-high 31.9 points per game, allowing them to be more frivolous with the football than everyone else.
The Steelers' desired approach of running the football, playing winning defense, and winning the turnover margin has not been carried out to the anticipated level heading into this season, and the results thus far reflect as much. But it doesn't mean said the desired approach has to change simply because their starting quarterback has.
If anything, the accelerated development of Kenny Pickett only heightens the Steelers' need to meet those expectations. His future success as this team's starting quarterback, and the team's future success, as a result, both depend on it.