Spring Weather Forecast: What Will El Nino Bring?
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) - According to NOAA 2015 was the hottest year on record for the globe and 2016 could give it a run for its money when it comes to record setting heat.
One of the reasons behind the record setting temperatures is a global wind pattern known as El Nino. From heavy rains being more likely in California to Monsoon and drought conditions in India, El Nino has a wide range of impacts across the globe.
For our winters it means less predictability, more ups and downs with big temperature swings and big single snow events. The impact for our springs isn't as easy to predict according to scientist at the Accuweather offices in State College, Pennsylvania.
"A lot of people, when they look at El Niño, they think like in averages, but you get big fluctuations and you can get some significant cold shots." Senior Accuweather meteorologist Mark Mancuso said. "It is never anything that is typical. There are a lot of factors that come into play. Does the warming come early or late?"
That's what makes El Nino so difficult to predict. Overall you're looking for warming in a very large area. Any warming no matter where located in this distinct area will technically mean El Nino conditions. It also can mean very different conditions for areas across the globe when compared to other El Ninos.
For us the big thing to watch for will be how wet or dry our spring will be.
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"I expect temperatures to get warmer faster by mid to late spring with it drier. That could be a problem late spring summer as it comes to agriculture and things like that." Said Lead Long-Range forecaster Paul Pastelok.
The heat could mean more money spent cooling your home or business. "It's going to be hot in May already, normally the hot season is in June, July and early august. If it is already hot in May you're using more energy."
That's not the only way your pocket book may be impacted, of course an April day at the beach or lake doesn't sound too bad.
"It's been kind of lousy the past couple of springs, so you'd have benefits of going to the beaches, lake, getting those outdoor projects done."
While warm weather arriving sooner probably doesn't sound too bad to most, there are some serious concerns as we head into the summer months. Remember when I mentioned how El Nino's differ by where we track the warmer water to? This current El Nino correlates closely with the El Nino's of 97-98. If this spring turns out dry and hot, our severe weather chances will go up.
"You can get severe weather and it can come in strong outbreaks going into the late spring and early summer." said Pastelok. "We've looked back at other years coming out of El Nino years. 1997-98 we had an early outbreak in June with tornadoes in the Pittsburgh area. It had a lot of damage across the mid-Atlantic and the northeast. So I'm concerned about May and June for severe weather outbreaks."