Poll shows hypothetical primary matchup between Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey and Corey O'Connor

PITTSBURGH (KDKA) -- A poll of Democrats in the city of Pittsburgh suggests that Mayor Ed Gainey may have trouble winning reelection next year.

The poll appears to be part of an effort to encourage County Controller Corey O'Connor to take on Gainey in the Democratic primary. 

One year before the 2025 spring primary, a coefficient poll taken for the Republican firm of Long Nyquist found that incumbent Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey is in a tie with County Controller and former City Councilman Corey O'Connor.

In a head-to-head matchup, Gainey and O'Connor each poll 37% of Democrats with 25% undecided. 

When voters are told negative things about Gainey, like crime in the city, his support for property reassessments, a potential budget crisis and some alleged ethical issues, O'Connor, the son of the late Mayor Bob O'Connor takes the lead, 42% to 35%, with 24% undecided. 

"If I'm Ed Gainey, I'm not terrified by these numbers, but I'm not necessarily overwhelmingly confident either," said Democratic political strategist Mike Mikus. 

Mikus says city mayors have the ability to turn negative perceptions around quickly. 

"If I'm the mayor, I'm doubling my efforts in terms of being visible and come across as a problem-solver," Mikus said.

O'Connor said he had nothing to do with this poll and is publicly noncommittal about a run for mayor, adding, quote, "I love this city and want it to succeed. At this point, I am doing my job as controller and focused on the Fall election for our candidates.

"I've been getting calls from community leaders all over the city. After the Fall election, we'll look at what's next." 

Some think what is often called a push poll was designed to get O'Connor to run. 

"I think they tested Corey O'Connor because he does have an attractive profile, and they may try and use this poll to try to get him to run against the mayor," Mikus said.

Jake Wheatley, Gainey's chief of staff, had no comment on the poll but noted in a statement, quote, "Violent crime is down, the state of our infrastructure has improved, affordable housing options are growing, and basic services are faster - Mayor Gainey is doing the work the people elected him to do and will continue to do so." 

Whether O'Connor runs for mayor may depend on money. It could take $1.5 to $2 million to defeat Gainey. Beating an incumbent is not easy, but Gainey defeated former Mayor Bill Peduto so it can be done.