Major parties look to pick 'winning' candidates while worried about voter turnout
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) - Republicans and Democrats can vote in Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary.
As political editor Jon Delano reports, there's a lot at stake, but many citizens are not expected to vote.
Ask political analysts and they will say the same thing about this election.
"This may not be the most important election in our lifetime, but it is sure close to that," says Mike Mikus, a Democratic political strategist.
"This has to be one of the most critical midterm elections in the history of Pennsylvania. You can see it with the money being spent," says Khari Mosley, a Pittsburgh political analyst.
"In terms of national implications, I think this is the whole ballgame because of what Pennsylvania means as to control of the Senate. That's number one, and, number two, who our governor is," says Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia political analyst.
First on the ballot Tuesday is the U.S. Senate race to succeed U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican. Democrats want this seat badly, and Republicans want to keep it.
Polls suggest that three Republicans are in a tie for the nomination: Mehmet Oz, Dave McCormick and Kathy Barnette with Jeff Bartos, Carla Sands, Sean Gale and George Bochetto trailing.
On the Democratic side, polls suggest John Fetterman is in the lead over Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta and Alexandria Khalil.
"What this election could do is end up determining the balance of power in Washington," says Mikus.
While Democrats have just one candidate for governor, Attorney General Josh Shapiro, Republicans have nine on the ballot.
Polls have Doug Mastriano in the lead with Lou Barletta, Bill McSwain and Dave White in the hunt. Also on the ballot are Jake Corman, Joe Gale, Charlie Gerow, Melissa Hart and Nche Zama, but Corman and Hart dropped out last week and both endorsed Barletta.
It's been a topsy-turvy political season with negative attacks, endorsements from a former president and millions of dollars spent by super PACs trash-talking each other.
"The most vicious, biggest battle we've seen in years," says Mikus.
Many political insiders think voter turnout will be low.
"I think people to a certain degree are turned off, so I see the voter turnout being lower than usual," says Ceisler.
Maybe just 30 percent. So when turnout is low, who votes?
"On the Democratic side, it will be the folks further to the left, and on the Republican side, it will be the folks further to the right. So the folks that are going to get left out are the moderates and the centrists," says Mosley.
But one Republican strategist thinks turn-out will be higher among Republicans, citing primaries in nearby states.
"If you look at West Virginia and Ohio, you saw very large turnout. You saw I think 20 percent higher turnout in both of those states since their past congressional elections," says Mike DeVanney, a Republican political strategist. "So to me, this all says there is real energy on the Republican side and the first place to voice that is at the ballot box on Tuesday."
Another unknown: the impact of former President Trump's endorsement, especially his support for Mehmet Oz.
"If Dr. Oz loses, that may show that Donald Trump doesn't have a grip on the Republican party like he once did," says Mikus.
None of the candidates is expected to get a majority of the vote, but there are no run-offs in a multi-candidate race, so you can win with just 25 percent of the vote if you're the top vote-getter.
That, say analysts, can lead to the nomination of candidates who cannot win in November.
"This is what happens when you do not have party leadership to coalesce behind one candidate," says Ceisler.
In addition to the statewide races, voters in both parties will be choosing nominees for the U.S. House of Representatives, the state Senate and the state House.