KDKA 2022-23 Winter Weather Forecast: How cold and how much snow?
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) -- You might not want to think about it just yet, but at some point in the not-too-distant future, we're all going to have to be honest with ourselves and admit that winter is coming.
So what kind of a winter is in store this year? The entire KDKA-TV First Alert Weather Team has been hard at work on our annual Winter Weather Forecast.
But before we get into this year, let's talk about last year. For the season, we forecasted 46 inches of snow. The actual was 44.8 inches. So we were only 1.2 inches off. It looks like a very accurate forecast on paper.
But in the interest of transparency, our forecast did not go entirely to plan.
We were pretty spot-on in November and January, but we overshot the mark in December and February and undersold it in March and April.
We put these forecasts out based on big, general patterns, but our snowfall comes from smaller waves in those patterns, and that's why we forecast every day.
So now let's get into this year.
The pattern setup again this year for the U.S. will be a La Niña, which typically means cooler and wetter winters for our region. But this will be the third La Nina year in a row, which is something called a "triple dip".
The last time a triple dip happened was back in 1998 to 2001 and before that 1973 to 1976. Pittsburgh measured 35.6 inches of snow during both of those triple dip La Niñas, which is below normal. And neither of those years is on Pittsburgh's list of coldest seasons.
Speaking of temperatures, all signs are pointing to us starting the winter season sitting between really cold air to our west and warmer air on the east coast. This could mean some huge shifts in temperatures through early January where we have some really cold air and some really warm air. But we likely won't see long stretches of them one way or the other.
Overall, it's looking pretty average.
So here's our temperature forecast. December is the big month with temperatures a good degree and a half warmer than average and maybe even warmer than that. Meanwhile, January and February temperatures will be at just a half degree warmer than average.
That's all fine and well, but what you really want to hear about is snow, right? Whether you like a little snow or a lot, we see it all here in Pittsburgh, but the frequency varies.
On average, we usually see at least 1 inch of snow 13 times each winter. We see snowfalls of 6 inches or more every two years, 8 inches or more every four years, 12 inches or more every 14 years and 16 inches or more every 72 years. Snowmageddon back in 2010 was the last really big snow we had, so it might be a while before we have another one like that.
And whether you like snow or not, there's one day every year when almost all of us want a little snow: Christmas!
The Farmers' Almanac says we will have a white Christmas this year, but we can't promise you that.
A white Christmas is defined as having 1 inch of snow or more on the ground on Christmas Day. But the chance of that here in Pittsburgh is only 17%. In fact, in the last 132 years, we've had only 14 white Christmases here. Although the most snow we've ever had on Christmas was just two years ago.
So while you may be dreaming of a white Christmas, we're hoping for safe travels and maybe just 1 inch of snow so we can officially call it a white Christmas.
Of course, Christmas is just one day out of the entire winter, so what about the rest of this winter's snowfall forecast? Well, this winter is looking to have several bouts of precipitation, likely fighting between wet and white conditions.
Let's break it down month by month.
December is looking near average at just about 8 inches. However, a January thaw is likely going to keep snowfall totals around 9 inches, which is well below the 13 inches average for the month.
We'll likely make up some of that ground in February with 13 inches, which is just above the monthly average.
And it looks like as winter ends and spring begins in March and April, we'll see snowfall totals just a smidge below and above average, respectively, for a total of 8 inches across both months.
All told, for the entire season including any snow we see in November, we're forecasting 40 inches of snow this winter, which is about 4 inches less than an average Pittsburgh winter.