Maps show track of Hurricane Milton as forecasters predict landfall in Florida this week

Hurricane Milton strengthened into a powerful Category 5 storm Monday, on a track forecast to hit Florida's Gulf Coast mid-week. It was intensifying rapidly over warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, although forecasters said they expect Milton to weaken somewhat before striking land.

Just after 1:30 p.m. Eastern time, Milton had maximum sustained winds of 175 mph as it traveled eastward over warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters predict Milton will make landfall as a major hurricane around the Tampa Bay area on Wednesday, drenching a large part of a state still reeling from Hurricane Helene. But predictions oscillated early Monday on the timing of Milton's landfall and the expected strength when it arrives, as the hurricane has changed quickly in a matter of hours.

The latest update showed Milton centered about 105 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 700 miles southwest of Tampa.

Major hurricanes are those that reach Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, meaning sustained wind speeds are at least 111 mph. Sustained winds of 130 mph elevate a storm to Category 4, and 157 mph means a Category 5.

Path of Hurricane Milton

A map from the National Hurricane Center shows Milton as a major hurricane as it approaches Florida's west coast.

"Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing," the hurricane center said Monday, noting that the eye of the storm was becoming more defined. 

The storm is expected to travel near or just north of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula through Tuesday, with heavy rainfall expected as Milton makes its way northeast toward Florida. The Mexican government issued a hurricane warning from Celestun to Rio Lagartos, a hurricane watch from Celestun to Cabo Catoche, and a tropical storm warning from east of Cabo Catoche to Cancun. 

The National Weather Service said Monday morning that a hurricane watch was in effect for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Chokoloskee north to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay and the Dry Tortugas. Lake Okeechobee was also under a hurricane watch.

A storm surge watch was issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from Flamingo north to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. Storm surge in the Tampa Bay area could reach up to 12 feet above ground level.

Far more rain — up to 15 inches in some localized areas — was forecast to fall on parts of western Florida later in the week as the storm makes landfall.

Florida officials prepare for more impact

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Sunday that while it remained to be seen just where Milton would strike, it was clear that Florida would be hit hard. 

"I don't think there's any scenario where we don't have major impacts at this point," he said.

"You have time to prepare — all day today, all day Monday, probably all day Tuesday to be sure your hurricane preparedness plan is in place," DeSantis said. "If you're on that west coast of Florida, barrier islands, just assume you'll be asked to leave."

DeSantis expanded a state of emergency declaration on Sunday to 51 counties and said Floridians should prepare for more power outages and disruptions, making sure they have a week's worth of food and water and were ready to hit the road.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency, meanwhile, coordinated with the governor and briefed President Biden Sunday on how it has staged lifesaving resources ahead of the storm.

"I highly encourage you to evacuate" if you're in an evacuation zone, said Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. "We are preparing ... for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma. "

As many as 4,000 National Guard troops are helping state crews to remove debris, DeSantis said.

"All available state assets ... are being marshaled to help remove debris," DeSantis said. "We're going 24-7 ... it's all hands on deck."

In:
• Atlantic Hurricane Season
• Mexico
• Gulf of Mexico
• Florida
• Hurricane
• National Hurricane Center