Attempted assassination on Trump has voters thinking about Election Day much earlier than normal, experts say
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) -- Political experts say the attempted assassination of former president Donald Trump in Butler County, Pennsylvania, has shocked many voters into thinking about Election Day much earlier than they normally would. But reaction is mixed on whether it will actually change who wins the White House.
There have been at least 15 assassinations and attempted assassinations on current and former U.S. presidents along with presidential candidates since 1835.
"When you look back in 1968 with the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy and suddenly that put Hubert Humphrey on top of the Democrat ticket, and it was an incredibly close election in 1968, Richard Nixon ended up winning," said Steve Ulrich, the managing editor of PoliticsPA.
The attempted assassination on former president Trump and the tragedy that unfolded has rattled the nation.
"There's been a few folks floating the idea that the events last Saturday in Butler will depress turn out, that people will be so, so disgusted and fed up by what's going on and sort of the vitriol and hatred in our politics that people just want to throw up their hands," said Terry Tracy, the CEO of the think tank Broad + Liberty. "I disagree with that. I'm not feeling that, at least within, again, the broader center right coalition. I think Republicans voters will be very motivated to come out and support this ticket."
Ulrich believes what happened will invigorate voters.
"I think the assassination attempt on former President Trump will galvanize Republicans throughout the state. If they were thinking of sitting on the sideline, I think that this only motivates them even more to turn out and come to the polls," Ulrich said.
Tracy is also an RNC delegate. About the convention, he said, "I think what is remarkable about this moment in time is the unity that is being exhibited. Of the 15 years that I've been involved, I would say the last 10 have been consumed by a lot of internecine warfare, you know, a lot of fighting over the direction of the Republican Party."
Lauren Cristella, the president and CEO of Committee of Seventy, explains what she is seeing in voter data through the nonprofit organization.
"The Republicans have changed their message when it comes to mail-in voting, they are embracing it. And we're seeing a bigger push on that end. That said, we will not see the 50% of voters in Pennsylvania voting by mail like we did in the pandemic -- right? -- just because people felt like it was unsafe to show up at polls. [We're] anticipating it might settle around 30% of the vote."
However, Ulrich says the Democratic Party should be coming out to off set the Republican resurgence.
"Democrats are going to have to turn out in droves to offset the enthusiasm that you see in the Republican Party certainly following Donald Trump and JD Vance. If the Democrats don't win Pennsylvania, the Democratic candidate for president has no chance of winning the White House," Ulrich said.