Zeoli: Vice President Kasich
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- Despite definitive public statements that Ohio Governor John Kasich would never be his running mate, a Donald Trump/John Kasich ticket is a strong possibility. No one knows if Trump will reach the magic 1,237 delegate number he needs prior to the start of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland this summer. Depending on the day, and the pundit, his pathway is either impossible or a done deal. One thing is certain, he will be close to the number. But what's the old saying? Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. The rules are the rules, and a candidate needs 50 percent plus one of the delegates, or 1,237, to be the Republican nominee. On a first ballot, Trump may be a few delegates shy.
The Trump campaign does not want to risk a second ballot where hundreds of delegates who were originally pledged to Trump are now free to vote for another candidate. Senator Ted Cruz presumably does very well on a second ballot, so locking up the nomination on the first ballot is crucial for Trump. Enter Ohio Governor John Kasich. He presently has 144 delegates. That would be more than enough to put Trump over the top on the first ballot, assuming Trump continues winning primaries from now until June 7 at about the same percentages. By offering Kasich the number two slot, Trump not only hits the magic number, he increases his odds of winning Ohio in the general election.
Ohio is arguably the most crucial swing state for Republicans. As goes Ohio, so goes the White House. George W. Bush won Ohio. Both John McCain and Mitt Romney lost Ohio. A ticket with the Governor of Ohio, combined with Trump's ability to attract blue collar voters, increases the likelihood Ohio is competitive. Kasich also brings experience to the ticket, something Donald Trump has said he wants for his number two. He recently told the Washington Post, "So I would 95 percent see myself picking a political person, as opposed to somebody from the outside."
Kasich is a political person with an extensive resume that includes eight terms in Congress. He balances the ticket by offering an understanding of the machinations of Capitol Hill and the legislative process.
While I have publicly dismissed the polling data that shows Kasich is the only candidate who beats Hillary Clinton in a general election (he is the only candidate left who hasn't been the recipient of attack ads) Kasich polls better than Trump with women voters and moderate Republicans. Both candidates have won blue collar rust belt voters in places like Ohio and Michigan. Assuming current polling data holds, Trump and Kasich are poised to place number one and two respectively in Pennsylvania, another state that could very well be in play in November given the number of blue collar voters.
In the meantime, continue to expect lots of very strong Veep denials from Kasich. But what is he supposed to say publicly? Right now, he needs everyone to believe he's running for President, so he can't entertain any talk of Veep. It's the game. And an insider like Kasich knows how to play the game.