Villanova Not Favorites To Win 2019 Championship In Way-Too-Early Projection
SAN ANTONIO (CBS SPORTS) -- Villanova won the national championship via a 79-62 victory over Michigan late Monday. I'm sure you've heard. So the 2017-18 college basketball season is over. Which means it's time to start looking ahead to the 2018-19 season — where I expect the Kansas Jayhawks to be the preseason favorite to win the national championship.
Philadelphia To Host Villanova Championship Parade On Thursday
Put simply, KU should be loaded — even if Malik Newman enters the NBA Draft -- and that's because Dedric Lawson, K.J. Lawson and Charlie Moore are all eligible, because five of the top eight scorers are expected back, and because Bill Self is about to enroll a top-five recruiting class highlighted by five-star guard Quentin Grimes. That's the projection right now, at least, which is what this entire Ridiculously Early Preseason CBS Sports Top 25 (and one) represents.
It's a projection.
Obviously, some of the players I think are leaving school will remain in school. And some of the players I think are remaining in school will leave. And teams will add meaningful players over the next few months. As always, when news suggests these rankings need adjusting, I'll adjust.
1. Kansas
Coach: Bill Self
2017-18 record: 33-7
Notable players definitely gone: Devonte' Graham, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
Other expected departures: Malik Newman
Notable players expected to return: Udoka Azubuike, Lagerald Vick, Marcus Garrett, Mitch Lightfoot, Silvio De Sousa, Sam Cunliffe
Expected additions: Dedric Lawson, K.J. Lawson, Charlie Moore, Quentin Grimes, Devon Dotson, David McCormack, Ochai Agbaji
Why the Jayhawks are ranked here: Bill Self will once again have a roster loaded with talent and experience — the kind that makes the Jayhawks the clear favorite to win a 15th straight Big 12 title. Former Memphis star Dedric Lawson should be a double-double nightmare for opponents right from the jump. And the arrival of five-star guards Quentin Grimes and Devon Dotson makes the expected loss of Malik Neman less of a big deal.
2. Duke
Coach: Mike Krzyzewski
2017-18 record: 29-8
Notable players definitely gone: Marvin Bagley III, Grayson Allen
Other expected departures: Wendell Carter, Trevon Duval, Gary Trent
Notable players expected to return: Marques Bolden, Javin DeLaurier, Alex O'Connell, Justin Robinson, Antonio Vrankovic, Jordan Goldwire, Jack White
Expected additions: R.J. Barrett, Cameron Reddish, Zion Williamson, Tre Jones
Why the Blue Devils are ranked here: The guess here is that Duke will lose its entire starting lineup — although it's possible Gary Trent or Trevon Duval could decide to do another year of college basketball. Either way, the recruiting class is again loaded thanks to commitments from the No. 1 (R.J. Barrett), No. 2 (Cameron Reddish) and No. 3 (Zion Williamson) prospects in the Class of 2018. So the Blue Devils will be factors on the national stage again.
3. Villanova
Coach: Jay Wright
2017-18 record: 36-4
Notable players definitely gone: None
Other expected departures: Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Omari Spellman
Notable players expected to return: Donte DiVincenzo, Eric Paschall, Phil Booth, Collin Gillespie, Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree, Jermaine Samuels, Tim Delaney, Dylan Painter
Expected additions: Jahvon Quinerly, Cole Swider, Brandon Slater
Why the Wildcats are ranked here: Even if Villanova loses Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges and Omari Spellman — all which seems likely — they're still going to be a threat to make a third Final Four in a four-year span because Donte DiVincenzo, Eric Paschall and Phil Booth are ready for stardom. Beyond that, Jay Wright has a top-15 recruiting class highlighted by Jahvon Quinerly set to enroll. So the Wildcats aren't going anywhere.
4. Auburn
Coach: Bruce Pearl
2017-18 record: 26-8
Notable players definitely gone: Davion Mitchell
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Mustapha Heron, Bryce Brown, Austin Wiley, Danjel Purifoy, Jared Harper, Desean Murray, Chuma Okeke, Anfernee McLemore, Horace Spencer, Malik Dunbar
Expected additions: Samir Doughty
Why the Tigers are ranked here: The Tigers return the top eight scorers from a team that shared the SEC regular-season title — and are expected to also bring back Austin Wiley and Danjel Purifoy. Consequently, I think, Auburn should be the favorite in the SEC and a real threat to make the first Final Four in school history. Mustapha Heron is a big reason why. He averaged 16.4 points and 5.3 rebounds this season.
5. Tennessee
Coach: Rick Barnes
2017-18 record: 26-9
Notable players definitely gone: James Daniel
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bowden, Jordan Bone, Kyle Alexander, Chris Darrington, John Fulkerson, Derrick Walker, Zach Kent, Jalen Johnson, Yves Pons
Expected additions: None
Why the Vols are ranked here: Tennessee, like Auburn, should return most of the important pieces from a team that shared the SEC regular-season title. More specifically, the top six scorers are back — among them SEC Player of the Year Grant Williams. So it'll come as no surprise when the Vols finish at, or near, the top of the league again.
6. Kentucky
Coach: John Calipari
2017-18 record: 26-11
Notable players definitely gone: Tai Wynyard
Other expected departures: Kevin Knox, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Hamidou Diallo
Notable players expected to return: PJ Washington, Quade Green, Wenyan Gabriel, Jarred Vanderbilt, Nick Richards, Sacha Killeya-Jones, Brad Calipari, Jemarl Baker
Expected additions: Keldon Johnson, Immanuel Quickly, Tyler Herro
Why the Wildcats are ranked here: It's obviously unclear what Kentucky's roster will look like come November. The Wildcats could keep one of the players expected to leave or lose one of the players expected to stay. And they could add more pieces. As always, we'll see. But it does seem like UK will retain more five-star freshmen than usual. And the recruiting class is strong again. So John Calipari should have a team good enough to make the Final Four for the fifth time in 10 years.
7. Gonzaga
Notable players definitely gone: Johnathan Williams III, Silas Melson
Others expected to leave: None
Notable players expected to return: Killian Tillie, Zach Norvell, Josh Perkins, Rui Hachimura, Corey Kispert, Jacob Larsen, Jeremy Jones, Jesse Wade
Expected additions: Joel Ayayi, Brandon Clark, Filip Petrusev, Greg Foster
Why the Bulldogs are ranked here: Gonzaga has finished in the top 25 at KenPom each of the past seven years — and in the top 10 in three of the past four. So the Zags are an undeniable benefit-of-the-doubt team. Sure, they lost their leading scorer in Johnathan Williams III. But they'll still be a top-10 team and WCC power as long as Killian Tillie remains in school.
8. Virginia
Coach: Tony Bennett
2017-18 record: 31-3
Notable players definitely gone: Devon Hall, Isaiah Wilkins, Nigel Johnson
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, De'Andre Hunter, Mamadi Diakite, Jack Salt, Jay Huff, Marco Anthony
Expected additions: Kody Stattmann, Kihei Clark
Why the Cavaliers are ranked here: Virginia's historic loss to UMBC in the NCAA Tournament was a less-than-ideal way to end the season. But it shouldn't make anybody forget that Tony Bennett's team put together the nation's best resume in advance of Selection Sunday. They were terrific most of the season. And seven of the top 10 players from that team should be back to help Virginia compete for another ACC title.
9. North Carolina
Coach: Roy Williams
2017-18 record: 26-11
Notable players definitely gone: Joel Berry, Theo Pinson
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Luke Maye, Cameron Johnson, Kenny Williams, Sterling Manley, Garrison Brooks, Andrew Platek, Brandon Robinson, Brandon Huffman, Seventh Woods, Shea Rush
Expected additions: Nassir Little, Coby White, Rechon Black
Why the Tar Heels are ranked here: With the NCAA cloud no longer hovering, UNC is back to recruiting like UNC — evidence being that the Tar Heels got commitments from five-star prospects Nassir Little and Coby White. Those two will pair with veterans like Luke Maye, Cameron Johnson and Kenny Williams to put Roy Williams in a position to maybe win a fourth national title. And Maye could be a First-Team All-American if he averages 16.9 points and 10.1 rebounds again.
10. Nevada
Coach: Eric Musselman
2017-18 record: 29-8
Notable players definitely gone: Kendall Stephens, Elijah Foster, Hallice Cooke, Darien Williams
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Caleb Martin, Jordan Caroline, Cody Martin, Lindsey Drew, Josh Hall, Charlie Tooley
Expected additions: K.J. Hymes, Vincent Lee, Nisre' Zouzoua, Jazz Johnson, Tre'Shawn Thurman, Corey Henson
Why the Wolf Pack are ranked here: This ranking is based on Caleb and Cody Martin returning. If they don't, Nevada won't be in the top 10. But with the twins — who combined to average 32.9 points and 11.7 rebounds this season — on the roster this is a team built to run through the Mountain West Conference again and advance to a second straight Sweet 16.
11. Michigan State
Coach: Tom Izzo
2017-18 record: 30-5
Notable players definitely gone: Miles Bridges, Jaren Jackson, Gavin Schilling, Tum Tum Nairn, Ben Carter
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Cassius Winston, Nick Ward, Joshua Langford, Matt McQuaid, Xavier Tillman, Kenny Goins, Kyle Ahrens
Expected additions: Marcus Bingham, Foster Loyer, Gabe Brown, Aaron Henry, Thomas Kithier
Why the Spartans are ranked here: The losses of Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson to the NBA Draft will hurt. But it's not like Tom Izzo didn't have time to prepare for that development. And there are still enough nice pieces in East Lansing — plus a top-15 recruiting class on the way — to make the Spartans the favorite to win back-to-back Big Ten regular-season titles. Cassius Winston will be the leading returning scorer. He averaged 12.6 points in 28.1 minutes per game this season.
12. Kansas State
Coach: Bruce Weber
2017-18 record: 25-12
Notable players definitely gone: None
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Dean Wade, Barry Brown, Xavier Sneed, Kamau Stokes, Cartier Diarra, Makol Mawien, Mawdo Sallah, Mike McGuirl, Amaad Wainwright, Levi Stockard III, Brian Patrick
Expected additions: Shaun Williams
Why the Wildcats are ranked here: Every player from KSU's 25-win team that advanced to the Elite Eight of the 2018 NCAA Tournament is expected back. So it's hard not to have Bruce Weber's team somewhere in the top 15. Remember, they could've made the Final Four if Dean Wade was never injured. So don't be surprised if Kansas State is the biggest threat to Kansas' string of Big 12 titles.
13. Virginia Tech
Coach: Buzz Williams
2017-18 record: 21-12
Notable players definitely gone: Justin Bibbs, Devin Wilson
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Justin Robinson, Kerry Blackshear Jr., Nickel Alexander-Walker, Ahmed Hill, Chris Clarke, P.J. Horne, Kyrie Jackson, Wabissa Beade, Ty Outlaw
Expected additions: Landers Nolley, Jarren McAllister, Jon Kabongo, Khadim Sy
Why the Hokies are ranked here: Justin Bibbs was a double-digit scorer. So losing him matters. But just about every other meaningful piece from a team that earned a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament should be back — including Justin Robinson, who averaged 14.0 points in 30.9 minutes per game this season. Bottom line, this is expected to be Buzz Williams' best team in five years at Virginia Tech. A top-four finish in the ACC is very possible.
14. Louisville
Coach: Chris Mack
2017-18 record: 22-14
Notable players definitely gone: Anas Mahmoud, Quentin Snider
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Deng Adel, Ray Spalding, V.J. King, Ryan McMahon, Jordan Nwora, Dwayne Sutton, Darius Perry, Malik Williams, Lance Thomas
Expected additions: None
Why the Cardinals are ranked here: Chris Mack will inherit a nice roster left behind by Rick Pitino — one that will give the former Xavier coach a chance to compete near the top of the ACC in his first season at Louisville. And it's also worth noting that Mack has multiple open scholarships available to use however he sees fit. So don't be surprised if the Cardinals add some helpful pieces before the start of the season.
15. Florida State
Coach: Leonard Hamilton
2017-18 record: 23-12
Notable players definitely gone: Braian Angola, Brandon Allen, CJ Walker
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Phil Cofer, Terance Mann, Trent Forrest, Mfiondu Kabengele, M.J. Walker, PJ Savoy, Christ Koumadje, Ike Obiagu, Wyatt Wilkes, Anthony Polite
Expected additions: Devin Vassell, RaiQuan Gray,
Why the Seminoles are ranked here: Leonard Hamilton had FSU one win away from the Final Four, and now his top two players from that team are expected back. Yes, I know Phil Cofer was technically a senior this season. But Florida State has submitted a waiver request for a fifth year considering Cofer only played 123 minutes in the 2015-16 season. If it's granted, and most believe it will be, then Florida State should be in the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive year.
16. Mississippi State
Coach: Ben Howland
2017-18 record: 25-12
Notable players definitely gone: None
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Quinndary Weatherspoon, Aric Holman, Nick Weatherspoon, Lamar Peters, Tyson Carter, Abdul Ado, Xavian Stapleton, Eli Wright, Nick Singleton, E.J. Datcher, KeyShawn Feazell
Expected additions: Reggie Perry, Robert Woodard, DJ Stewart, Jethro Tshisumpa
Why the Bulldogs are ranked here: Everybody from a 25-win team that advanced to the semifinals of the NIT should be back, which makes Mississippi State a factor in the SEC and likely NCAA Tournament team for the first time under Ben Howland. Among the returning players is Quinndary Weatherspoon, who averaged a team-high 14.4 points and 6.0 rebounds this season. His brother, Nick, averaged 10.8 points while shooting 47.9 percent from the field.
17. Maryland
Coach: Mark Turgeon
2017-18 record: 19-13
Notable players definitely gone: Justin Jackson, Jared Nickens, Michal Cekovsky, Sean Obi, Dion Wiley
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Anthony Cowan, Kevin Huerter, Bruno Fernando, Darryl Morsell, Ivan Bender, Joshua Tomaic
Expected additions: Jalen Smith, Aaron Wiggins, Eric Ayala, Schnider Herard
Why the Terrapins are ranked here: The Terrapins belong in the Top 25 (and one) because they're expected to return the top three scorers from a top-40 KenPom team — most notably Anthony Cowan, who averaged a team-high 15.8 points and 5.1 assists this season. Bruno Fernando has NBApotential. So a breakout season from him won't be shocking. And the prediction here is that Maryland competes at the top of the Big Ten and maybe even wins it.
18. West Virginia
Coach: Bob Huggins
2017-18 record: 26-11
Notable players definitely gone: Jevon Carter, Daxter Miles, D'Angelo Hunter
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Sagaba Konate, Esa Ahmad, Lamont West, James Bolden, Teddy Allen, Wesley Harris, Chase Harler, Maciej Bender, Logan Routt
Expected additions: Jordan McCabe, Derek Culver, Trey Doomes, Andrew Gordon, Brandon Knapper
Why the Mountaineers are ranked here: The Mountaineers lose a lot from that 26-win team — most notably Jevon Carter. But West Virginia has never finished outside of the top 25 since Bob Huggins committed to "Press Virginia" before the 2014-15 season. So there's no reason to think they'll slip too much even with key players gone.
19. Oregon
Coach: Dana Altman
2017-18 record: 23-13
Notable players definitely gone: Elijah Brown, MiKyle McIntosh, Roman Sorkin
Other expected departures: Troy Brown
Notable players expected to return: Payton Pritchard, Paul White, Victor Bailey, Kenny Wooten, Keith Smith, M.J. Cage, Abu Kigab
Expected additions: Bol Bol, Louis King, Will Richardson, Miles Norris
Why the Ducks are ranked here: Oregon is set to enroll the nation's No. 2 recruiting class that's highlighted by possible one-and-done prospects Bol Bol and Louis King. Combine that with the return of leading scorer Payton Pritchard, and Dana Altman's Ducks should be the favorite to win the Pac-12 while Arizona goes through a total rebuild.
20. UCLA
Coach: Steve Alford
2017-18 record: 21-12
Notable players definitely gone: Aaron Holiday, Thomas Welsh, Gyorgy Goloman
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Kris Wilkes, Jaylen Hands, Prince Ali, Alex Olesinski, Chris Smith, Cody Riley, Jalen Hill
Expected additions: Shareef O'Neal, Jules Bernard, David Singleton, Kenneth Nwuba, Moses Brown, Tiger Campbell
Why the Bruins are ranked here: Steve Alford has secured consecutive top-five recruiting classes, which gives him the talent necessary to make the NCAA Tournament for the fifth time in six years at UCLA. The star of this class is Moses Brown, a 7-foot center from New York. He's one of five top-75 prospects enrolling at UCLA, where Kris Wilkes is expected to be the Bruins' leading returning scorer. He averaged 13.7 points and 4.9 rebounds this season.
21. LSU
Coach: Will Wade
2017-18 record: 18-15
Notable players definitely gone: Duop Death, Aaron Epps, Randy Onwuasor, Jeremy Combs, Mayan Kiir, Galen Alexander
Others expected to leave: None
Notable players expected to return: Tremont Waters, Skylar Mays, Brandon Sampson, Daryl Edwards, Wayde Sims, Brandon Rachal,
Expected additions: Naz Reid, Ja'Vonte Smart, Darius Days, Emmitt Williams, Kavell Bigby-Williams
Why the Tigers are ranked here: Will Wade's effective recruiting has totally rebuilt LSU's roster and made it one of the SEC's most talented. Tremont Waters is terrific and should be an SEC Player of the Year candidate. And the arrival of a top-five class highlighted by Naz Reid and Emmitt Williams gives the Tigers a real chance to go from the bottom half of the SEC to somewhere near the top in a span of just one year.
22. TCU
Coach: Jamie Dixon
2017-18 record: 21-12
Notable players definitely gone: Vladimir Brodziansky, Kenrich Williams, Ahmed Hamdy
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Desmond Bane, Jaylen Fisher, Kouat Noi, Alex Robinson, JD Miller, Shawn Olden, RJ Nembhard
Expected additions: Kevin Samuel, Kaden Archie, Kendric Davis, Russell Barlow, Yuat Alok, Angus McWilliam, Lat Mayen
Why the Horned Frogs are ranked here: Jamie Dixon guided TCU to the NCAA Tournament in just his second season, and he should do it again in this third even though he's losing his top two scorers. Either Desmond Bayne or Jaylen Fisher will emerge as TCU's new leading scorer. Both averaged more than 12 points this season as sophomores.
23. Michigan
Coach: John Beilein
2017-18 record: 33-8
Notable players definitely gone: Muhammad-Ali Abdur Rahkman, Duncan Robinson, Jaaron Simmons
Other expected departures: Moritz Wagner
Notable players expected to return: Charles Matthews, Zavier Simpson, Jordan Poole, Isaiah Livers, Jon Teske, Ibi Watson, Eli Brooks, Austin Davis
Expected additions: Brandon Johns, Ignas Brazdeikis, David DeJulius, Colin Castleton, Adrien Nunez
Why the Wolverines are ranked here: If Mo Wagner returns, the Wolverines will definitely be much higher than 23rd. But even without him Michigan belongs in the Top 25 (and one) -- as long as Charles Matthews doesn't also jump early to the NBA Draft. The Kentucky transfer averaged 13.1 points and 5.6 rebounds this season. His development under John Beilein, like most players' development under the top-shelf coach, has been noticeable.
24. Clemson
Coach: Brad Brownell
2017-18 record: 25-10
Notable players definitely gone: Gabe DeVoe, Donte Grantham, Mark Donnal
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Marcquise Reed, Shelton Mitchell, Elijah Thomas, Aamir Simms, David Skara, Anthony Oliver II, Clyde Trapp, Malik William, Scott Spencer
Expected additions: John Newman, Trey Jamison, Hunter Tyson
Why the Tigers are ranked here: Clemson is losing two of the top three scorers from a 25-win team that finished in the top 15 at KenPom. But the Tigers played down the stretch without Donte Grantham — meaning they proved to be good even without him. And with four of the top six scorers back — among them Marcquise Reed, who averaged 15.8 points in 34.9 minutes per game this season —the expectation is for Clemson to be good again.
25. Cincinnati
Coach: Mick Cronin
2017-18 record: 31-5
Notable players definitely gone: Gary Clark, Kyle Washington
Other expected departures: Jacob Evans
Notable players expected to return: Jarron Cumberland, Cane Broome, Justin Jenifer, Trevor Moore, Keith Williams, Tre Scott, Nysier Brooks, Eliel Nsoseme, Mamoudou Diarra
Expected additions: Logan Johnson, LaQuill Hardnett
Why the Bearcats are ranked here: The loss of Jacob Evans early to the NBA Draft isn't necessarily a killer. But it hurts. And I realize Cincinnati's roster might not scream Top 25 (and one). But Mick Cronin has led the Bearcats to eight straight NCAA Tournaments largely with unheralded prospects. So I'm simply trusting him to do it again.
26. Purdue
Coach: Matt Painter
2017-18 record: 30-7
Notable players definitely gone: Vince Edwards, Isaac Haas, Dakota Mathias, P.J. Thompson
Other expected departures: None
Notable players expected to return: Carsen Edwards, Matt Haarms, Nojel Eastern, Ryan Cline, Sasha Stefanovic, Aaron Wheeler, Grady Eifert, Jacquil Taylor
Expected additions: Evan Boudreaux, Trevion Williams, Eric Hunter, Emmanuel Dowuona
Why the Boilermakers are ranked here: My first version of the Top 25 (and one) had Purdue out and Penn State in the teens. But Tony Carr's announcement that he's entering the NBA Draft pushed me to remove the Nittany Lions — and Purdue took the open spot. The Boilermakers lost a lot, sure. But they still have Carsen Edwards and some other interesting pieces. In time, we'll see if it's enough.