7 politics stories the Philadelphia region should watch for in 2024
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- It's a new year, and though Philadelphia just elected a new mayor, it's almost time for campaign season once again.
There are only 306 days until the presidential election on Nov. 5, 2024, with potential for a repeat of 2020's showdown between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
But the presidential race isn't the only one we're watching this year, and on the local level, new leaders are taking the reins.
Here are seven ongoing things we're watching in the political world.
Can Joe Biden count on Philadelphia and the suburbs in the 2024 election?
You might as well call it Battleground: Pennsylvania in 2024. The Keystone State will most likely be the keystone for success, not just for capturing the White House, but for trying to flip the House and Senate as well.
President Joe Biden is seeking a second term in the White House. But the Democrat faces several hurdles on his way back to Pennsylvania Avenue. Voters nationwide have expressed concern about the Commander-in-Chief's age (he'll be 82 at the start of his second term), and Pennsylvania voters haven't been impressed.
A December Muhlenberg College Poll showed 65% of Pennsylvania voters don't believe Biden deserves another term in the White House. He was also seen favorably by just 32% of respondents (Biden's rival Trump hit just 33% favorability in the same poll).
Biden and Trump's fight for Pennsylvania in 2020 was a sprint to the finish. The Democrat topped the sitting president by a mere 81,660 votes, and it was the Philly five-county area that won him the day. Biden won Philadelphia, Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, and Bucks, racking up 1,516,808 votes across those counties. For reference, Hillary Clinton pulled in 190,557 fewer votes in the same area four years earlier and lost to Trump.
The five-county area accounted for 44% of Biden's total votes in the state in 2020 — the same as Clinton — but he drew more turnout. Biden will likely have to create that same energy in 2024 while facing questions about his age and fighting sagging approval numbers.
And Biden knows where his votes come from. He and the First Lady are slated to once again visit Philadelphia on Jan. 5. It will be the president's first visit to the state in the election year, and at least his 16th since taking office in January 2021.
Will Donald Trump's legal troubles keep him off the ballot in Pennsylvania?
Donald Trump is the easy frontrunner to reclaim the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, but voters in some states may not even have the option to reelect Trump to the White House. On Dec. 19, the Colorado Supreme Court removed Trump from the state's ballot, citing the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. A week later, Maine's Secretary of State made the same move.
The U.S. Supreme Court has been asked to take up the Colorado decision.
Back in our region, Pennsylvania's Secretary of State says he has no power to remove Trump from the ballot, and that the question would have to be answered by the courts. Read our full breakout piece here.
Can Democrats hold contested House districts in Pennsylvania?
Republicans have their eyes set on expanding their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, and they'll aim to do that by putting the heat on two seats in Northeastern Pennsylvania.
Democratic Rep. Susan Wild flipped the Lehigh Valley's 7th District with a special election win in 2018. But in 2022, she held on to her spot by less than 6,000 votes. Wild will also have to contend with a map change after redistricting went into effect in January 2023. Her district loses portions of Monroe County, an area that favored Biden in 2020, 53% to 46%. The district also adds all of Carbon County, which backed Trump 65% to Biden's 33% in 2020.
Four Republicans are vying to challenge for Wild's seat in November 2024. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a Toss Up.
Just north of Wild's district, Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright faces a similar situation in the state's 8th District. Cartwright won reelection two years ago by a little more than two percentage points.
Look for Republicans to target the two seats heavily throughout this election season.
Can Democratic Sen. Bob Casey hold onto his seat in Pa.?
Bob Casey has been a fixture of Pennsylvania politics for decades. He was the state's auditor general and treasurer, before capturing his Senate seat in 2007. But he could face one of his toughest challenges to date in 2024.
Democrats hold a narrow two-seat majority in the U.S. Senate. The GOP will be looking for steals where they can, and they'll likely take a hard look at Pennsylvania.
Casey cruised to reelection in 2018, handily beating Republican Lou Barletta with 53% of the vote. But 2024 could be a different story.
Casey's race was rated by the Cook Political Report as "leans Democrat." Another Democrat, two Independents and three Republicans are challenging for the spot, most notably David McCormick. McCormick lost to Mehmet Oz in the 2022 Senate Republican Primary by less than 1,000 votes, and he has already had a fundraiser with some wealthy billionaires.
Further complicating matters for Casey is that Republicans don't have any seats in danger, and Democrats will have to protect seven seats deemed Toss Ups or Lean Democrat, according to Cook.
But McCormick also faces questions of his own, specifically, whether he actually lives in Pennsylvania.
Who is on the presidential ticket could also factor into the race. Casey has been a staunch supporter of Biden, who faces sagging approval numbers. McCormick has also kept former Trump at arm's length.
An October Quinnipiac Poll showed Casey leading a hypothetical matchup with McCormick, 50-44.
Can NJ Sen. Bob Menendez beat federal corruption charges again?
Longtime New Jersey politician Sen. Bob Menendez once again faces federal charges, this time for allegedly accepting bribes and acting as a foreign agent for Egypt and receiving gifts linking to favorable comments about Qatar.
In September, federal prosecutors released shocking photos of gold bars found in the Menendez home and cash found in jackets bearing Menendez's name.
Menendez faced similar federal charges when he was indicted in 2015. A judge declared a mistrial in that case after the jury couldn't reach a verdict, and federal prosecutors dropped the case.
Menendez has denied these latest charges and, while he stepped down as chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, he refused to resign his seat and pledged to run for a second term.
Democrats though, see an opportunity to oust the senator from the seat he's held since 2006. Four Democrats are challenging Menendez, including Rep. Andy Kim. And in November, Tammy Murphy, wife of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, also entered the race.
Polling on the race has been limited, but internal numbers from Kim's campaign showed the congressmember in the lead.
Menendez's federal trial is slated to start on May 6.
How will Cherelle Parker lead after taking the reins as Philadelphia's mayor?
Cherelle Parker, Philadelphia's 100th mayor and the first woman to lead the city, was sworn in on Jan. 2.
Parker opened her term in office with three executive orders, including one that declared a public safety emergency in the city. The others removed the college requirement for city jobs and called for city government to become more responsive to the public.
FULL STORY: Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker stresses safety once again on first full day in office
On the campaign trail, Parker repeatedly pledged to make Philadelphia "the safest, cleanest, greenest big city in the nation with economic opportunity for all."
On her inauguration day, Parker released her plan for her first 100 days in office.
Familiar faces, new leaders at City Hall
Parker won't be the only new face leading a branch of city government. Councilmember Kenyatta Johnson will now lead Philadelphia's legislative body, as former Council President Darrell Clarke stepped aside. And how Parker and Johnson work together will shape how, or if, the city moves forward over the next few years.
Just ask Michael Nutter what happens when they mayor and city council don't get along. Nutter had a notoriously rocky relationship with councilmembers, who held up his plans for a soda tax and refused to even hear plans to privatize the Philadelphia Gas Works.
As for these incoming leaders, Parker and Johnson have a long history. The two served together in Harrisburg as state representatives from 2009 to 2012. Johnson took over his council seat serving South and Southwest Philly in 2012, and Parker followed him back to the city in 2016.
While Johnson did not endorse anyone during the Democratic primary, Parker has, on multiple occasions, called on the incoming president to join her at the podium, or shouted him out during speeches. Dawn Chavous, Johnson's wife, also serves on Parker's transition team as a vice chair on the sub-committee for education.
Parker's ability to get her agenda passed will rely on cooperation from council. Her relationship with Johnson will be one to watch in the early days of the new administration.