Farmers' Almanac forecasts 2023-24 winter season
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) - Success has different measures in different professions. A baseball player makes big money getting it right a third of the time at the plate.
When it comes to the weather, we don't notice when the forecasters get it right, but we sure do when it's wrong. And for the folks at the Farmers' Almanac, this past winter was a swing and a miss.
When they put together the winter 2022-23 forecast, the folks at the Farmers' Almanac said we would shake, shiver, and shovel.
"I'm horrified that you didn't, but you know, I think it was an indication that nature decides what nature is going to do and that we can't always predict accurately," said Peter Geiger, philom and managing editor of Farmers' Almanac.
Geiger says they were doing well in December.
"La Nina ended, and then all of sudden, things just flipped."
And the forecast for our area derailed spectacularly.
"Quite frankly, last winter, I was completely accurate when it came to the Rockies in the west, where they had 500 inches of snow, and we talked about all the snow they were gonna get, so I missed Pittsburgh, darn it," Geiger said.
It clearly bothers Geiger, but continuing the baseball analogy, it's only one at-bat.
"Doing this for 207 years, so I am okay. I mean, if we miss it, we miss it. And if we get it, we get it."
Farmers' is back with this year's prediction.
"We're saying that the 'brr' is back. So, we're going to go on a limb and say that it's going to be a cold, cold winter," Geiger said.
As Geiger points out, weather is just a small part of what's in the almanac.
What else is in there?
Everything from seeds to stars, wisdom, and points of curiosity. Ever wonder how a baker's dozen got started?
The Farmers' Almanac didn't do well with last winter's forecast, but it's back with its take on the coming winter. And this time around, the folks at the Almanac say the Pittsburgh winter will be a return to more of what we are used to.
Using a formula they won't reveal, and making the prediction two years in advance, here's what they've come up with.
"We talked about you all being frosty, flaky, and shivery. I think maybe more rain than snow," says Geiger.
The new almanac doesn't talk about snow until late November.
And December?
"Well, we say the first to the third. And I don't think we say snow, so I think we call it a blizzard. But blizzards don't have to be snow, either. But we talked about a big storm. That's the start of December," according to Geiger.
After a white Christmas seem doubtful, the almanac says to brace yourselves for the new year.
"The second week in January. A big storm."
And two weeks later?
"The 24th through the 27th of January being frigid."
On the other side of Groundhog Day?
"The second week of February, six to 12 inches of snow."
And snow on and off the rest of February. Come March, the almanac says temperatures will be all over the place.
"Between 30 and 60 or 70 degrees, and then we think that March, you go out and like a lion," Geiger added.
Will we see the eclipse of the sun on April 8, 2024? Maybe not.
"[There is] a potential for clouds, John, not a guarantee."
There you go. Back to the 'brrrrr' in winter and a chance to use your snow shovel and snow blower.
Of course, that's the almanac, but let's keep our faith in our team of First Alert meteorologists.
The accuracy of the almanacs has always been the topic of debate. Meteorologists are dealing with science based on current and foreseeable conditions in the short term.