AP News Guide: South Carolina, Nevada Step Up In 2016 Race
WASHINGTON (AP) — South Carolinians placed their stamp on the chaotic Republican presidential campaign Saturday while Nevadans put Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders to their first test before an ethnically varied electorate in the Democratic contest.
On the Republican side, the presidential hopes of Jeb Bush, Ben Carson and John Kasich may hang in the balance.
The campaign as the South Carolina GOP primary and the Nevada Democratic caucuses unfolded:
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REPUBLICANS IN SOUTH CAROLINA
If there's anything orderly about the GOP slugfest, it was the consistency of preference polls in South Carolina. Even with some tightening at the end, they suggested Donald Trump was the man to beat, Ted Cruz hovered in second with Marco Rubio perhaps in striking distance, and Bush, Kasich and Carson were scrambling behind them.
Trump took New Hampshire after Cruz won Iowa. The New York billionaire's status as front-runner will be ever stronger if he scores a big victory Saturday.
Nothing else in the GOP race is orderly.
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DEMOCRATS IN NEVADA
The caucuses will be an early tie-breaker: Clinton squeaked to victory in Iowa and Sanders routed her in New Hampshire.
Considered the favorite for the nomination since the start, Clinton has struggled to achieve a breakout while her self-described democratic socialist rival has lapped up excitement and made headway at every turn.
After contests in mostly white states, Nevada offers a population that is about one-quarter Hispanic and 9 percent black. Diversity will accelerate in weeks ahead for Democrats in South Carolina and in states that follow — a clear advantage for Clinton but one that Sanders has worked assiduously to counter.
Polls point to a close finish in Nevada, with Sanders narrowing what was once a distinct edge for his rival. But because the state's a caucus and not a primary, those polls aren't very reliable. In the first hours of voting, the race appeared close, according to surveys of caucus-goers as they arrived.
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VOTERS SAY...
— "If Ronald Reagan can smash the American dream from right field, then Bernie can build it back up from left field." — Dale Quale, 60, a veteran who lives in a transitional housing in Las Vegas, on why he's caucusing for Sanders and why he volunteered for his campaign.
— "I've seen Hillary do things for the Mexicans, I've seen her do things for the blacks, the whites, all of them. ... I'm going to be here to put her in office — they're going to hear my mouth." — Mary Moore, 60, in Las Vegas, on why she's supporting Clinton.
— "Carson is my favorite in the race but I don't think he'll make it through the election. As much as I like the Bush family I think that's played. And I think Marco Rubio is too young. So it came down to Cruz and Kasich and I think Kasich is someone who can unite the country and win the general election." — Steve Wilbourne, 46, of Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, on why he voted for the Ohio governor.
— "As much as I'd like to see a Christian as president, I'm not sure anyone can stay a Christian in that office." — Teresa Farley, 60, in Columbia, South Carolina, explaining that Carson was her favorite but he doesn't "stand a chance" so she voted for Trump.
— "It's been crazy." — Allison Reilly, 18, on what it was like to pay attention to her first campaign as a voting-age adult. She drove 150 miles from university to her parents' house in Columbia to cast her first ballot — for Rubio.
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EXPECTATIONS
The ever-present calculus of how a candidate performs against expectations may hang most heavily over Bush.
An early favorite in the race, long flush with cash that allies are spending on his behalf, Bush may need a third-place finish, if not better, to stay viable.
His South Carolina campaign had high and low points.
On the plus side: his strongest debate performance and a lively show of support from his brother, George W. Bush, in a state where people think fondly of the ex-president. On the down side, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley endorsed Rubio, a dispiriting turn for the ex-governor of Florida.
That endorsement was an obvious boost for Rubio, a Florida senator, but it raised expectations for him, too. He's yet to do better than a strong third in Iowa. Anything less than that Saturday would deepen questions about his potential to grow.
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HOW THEY VOTE
Polls opened at 7 a.m. EST in South Carolina and close at 7 p.m.
Evangelicals and tea party conservatives were important constituencies for Republicans. The state also has many military families and, like Nevada, many retirees.
Sen. John McCain won the 2008 South Carolina primary on his way to the Republican nomination. Newt Gingrich won the primary in 2012, when Mitt Romney became the nominee.
The Nevada caucuses opened their doors starting at 2 p.m. EST and each one should take a few hours.
Hispanic and black voters, as well as union members, were important for Democrats.
Nevadans backed Clinton over Barack Obama in 2008 on his way to the presidency.
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NEXT
The parties flip states: The Republican caucuses in Nevada are Tuesday and South Carolina's Democratic primary comes Feb. 27.
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Associated Press writers Michelle Rindels in Las Vegas and Jeffrey Collins and Bruce Smith in South Carolina contributed to this report.
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