Will another Aidan Miller fall to Philadelphia Phillies in 2024 MLB draft?
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) — On a personal level, Brian Barber would prefer the Philadelphia Phillies drafting higher than No. 27 in the 2024 MLB draft. For the assistant general manager of amateur scouting, the draft is where Barber makes his name.
But personal aspirations get in the way of team success. The Phillies are ecstatic to draft in the bottom of the first round.
"Our hope every year is that we're picking 30th overall," Barber said Wednesday.
The Phillies are selecting No. 27 in the 2024 MLB draft, a three-day event beginning Sunday night. It's a familiar slot for Philadelphia.
Last year, the Phils also held the 27th pick and landed shortstop/third baseman Aidan Miller out of J.W. Mitchell High School.
MLB Pipeline rated Miller as the 13th-best prospect in the 2023 draft, but he missed most of his senior season because of a broken hamate bone in his left hand. The injury played a factor in his fall, allowing Philadelphia to draft him.
A year later, Miller has risen to No. 27 on MLB Pipeline's top 100 prospects and second in the Phillies organization.
"There were points in time last year during the initial part of our meeting where there were some assumptions on our end that he wasn't going to be there," Barber said.
Who have the Phillies drafted in 1st round under Brian Barber?
Barber joined the Phillies as their amateur scouting director in 2019 after spending 18 seasons in the New York Yankees' organization.
The 2024 draft will be the fifth he's overseen, with the Phillies picking high school players with their first pick in his first four drafts: Pitchers Andrew Painter and Mick Abel, outfielder Justin Crawford and Miller. All four are in MLB Pipeline's top 100 prospects. Philadelphia has yet to draft a college player in the first round under Barber.
Philadelphia will select late in the first round for the second consecutive draft. In the four drafts Barber has overseen, the Phillies picked 15th, 13th, 17th and 27th.
One of the differences between drafting in the early or middle of the first round and later is the size of the board. The Phillies' AGM says when he's drafting higher "you know the pool is smaller," meaning his team has a smaller list of prospects.
Later in the first round, Barber says his team needs to be prepared for "so many different eventualities."
"One of the things that we learned last year is that anybody can necessarily fall to you and you have to be prepared for a lot of situations," Barber said. "You never have any certainty that somebody will be there or won't be there."
"At our spot, once the draft starts, you sit there, see how it plays out and you're ready to pounce on a player that you have evaluated higher and hopefully they fall," Barber added. "And if they don't, you're hopefully prepared for that. You normally don't get the 27th player on your board but have to be prepared for that situation as well."
Who could the Phillies pick in the 2024 MLB draft?
Mock drafts have the Phillies potentially going several different ways at No. 27. In their latest mock, CBS Sports' Mike Axisa has the Phillies selecting high school outfielder Slade Caldwell.
"A year ago, the Phillies landed the steal of the draft in Aidan Miller at No. 27. Miller and Caldwell are not all that similar -- Miller is a power threat likely to settle in at third base, Caldwell is a slash-and-dash burner -- but the Phillies have really leaned into the high school ranks the last few years, and Caldwell is the highest-upside high school position player still available in our mock draft, the same way Miller was the highest-upside high school position player still available when Philadelphia's first-round pick rolled around last summer," Axisa writes.
MLB Pipeline's Jonathan Mayo sees the Phils drafting LSU third baseman Tommy White. USA Today's Gabe Lacques predicts Philly will add catcher Caleb Lomavita out of the University of California. The Athletic and ESPN think the Phillies will draft North Carolina centerfielder Vance Honeycutt.
How does Barber view the 2024 MLB draft?
Barber says he believes the 2024 draft class is "probably closer to an average draft." He believes the top part of the draft will be dominated by college position players, but overall, the draft has depth to it.
"As you get deeper in the draft, I think there's a mix of different — every different demographic that you would look for," Barber said. "Whether that's college position players, college pitching, high school pitching, high school position players."
Unlike the NFL or NBA, which Barber says are more based on team needs, baseball is different. He says, in general, drafting a player who can play in the majors within 12 months is "very low on our priorities."
"You can't predict what's going to be on your big-league team in three or four or five years. A lot can change," Barber said. "The long-term outlook is a whole more important than the short-term outlook in a baseball draft."
Player development in baseball takes longer. A case like Orion Kerkering, who was drafted in the fifth round in 2022, isn't the norm. Kerkering made his Phillies debut late last season and now finds himself as a key part of the team's bullpen.
"What we perceive how quickly their path can be, can be completely different," Barber said. "In all honesty, I didn't tell anybody that when we drafted Orion Kerkering, that he was going to be in the big league in 13 or 14 months. Sometimes you're pleasantly surprised."