What is a Red Flag Warning? A look at New York and New Jersey fire risk and drought
NEW YORK - When one thinks of wildfires, states like California or Colorado come to mind, and that makes sense, given that fires are very common in those regions.
New York and New Jersey are certainly not known for being wildfire hotspots, but with an extended dry pattern that has settled upon this region, the threat of wildfires has become a very real concern.
There have been several wildfires already within the last few weeks, and there are a few active wildfires currently.
The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for Friday afternoon and evening for much of the Tri-State region, due to high winds blowing over a parched ground.
Conditions that are conducive for wildfire development throughout the area have been ongoing since early September, that's when our current drought started to unfold. Since September, less than 2 inches of rain has fallen in Central Park, with even less for parts of southern New Jersey, where drought has reached severe levels.
The consistent dryness has led to October 2024 becoming the driest month ever recorded in NYC, as well as the driest October ever, with only .01" of rain falling.
We are also on track to have our driest fall ever if rain doesn't return to the region through November. This is a contrast from last fall, which was one of the wettest ever recorded.
What is a Red Flag Warning?
Red Flag Warnings are designed to help fire managers know when not to prescribe burns on federal lands, like protected forests. They also help the general public know when it's unsafe to use fire in a outdoor settings such as a campground.
To meet warning criteria, vegetation on the ground and the soil itself must have less than 8% moisture levels, relative humidity levels are less than 25%, and wind speeds are forecasted to more than 15 mph over several hours. These conditions are exactly what is expected for Friday afternoon and evening.
Gusts may reach has high as 35 mph Friday, making fires capable of spreading rapidly.
Are wildfires common in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut?
While wildfires may not be as common in this area of the country as they are in the West, they can and do occur. When they do occur, the Pine Barrens of New Jersey, as well as the Meadowlands are where they are most common. Wildfires can happen anywhere throughout the region where there is extensive vegetation though.
Typically, our wildfire season is during the months of March and April, when soil moisture is low, winds are gusty, and evaporation rates are high. To see wildfires in this area in October and November is rare, because cooler temps and abundant rainfall usually prevents fires from developing.
However, this fall has been running above average in temperature, Halloween was the warmest ever recorded, and rain has just not fallen. Due to climate change, all patterns of weather and nature have been altered, and that does include fire patterns.
Although the Red Flag Warning was issued for only Friday, the threat of wildfires across the region will persist until the pattern switches back to wet. As of now, a pattern change does not look likely in the short term.
No measurable rain is in the forecast through the next week. If this trend persists, the whole region will become ensconced in a severe or even an extreme drought by December.