Odds of White Christmas in NYC area not good, and chances of snow are expected to get worse
NEW YORK -- Watch any Christmas movie set in New York City, and scenes of snow falling, or snow on the ground during Christmas Day are very prevalent. Despite those visuals of a cheerful city dressed in white for the holiday, the actual chance of seeing snow on Christmas Day is quite low.
Historically speaking, the odds are only at 11%. And that paltry number does not take into account the effects of climate change. A "White Christmas" is defined as having an inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. That snow can either be freshly fallen, or from a storm in the preceding days.
So why are the odds so low?
While December in New York can be very cold at times, it is not typically when the coldest airmasses of the season invade the region. Those are usually reserved for the months of January and February. It is also not the snowiest month either, only averaging 4.9 inches.
Another inhibiting factor is that the nearby ocean temperatures are still relatively mild in December, so many times when storms move through, they are able to draw in that warmth from the ocean, making a would-be snowstorm into a rainstorm instead.
Also, the average high on Dec. 25 is 42 degrees, which is not exactly conducive for sustaining a snowstorm or maintaining snow on the ground.
Will 2023 Be Different?
The last time the city recorded a White Christmas was in 2009. That year, a storm that dumped over 10 inches of snow several days before the holiday left the city blanketed in a sea of white. However, in the 14 years since then, snowfall during the month of December has been pretty minimal, with December 2020 being one of the few exceptions.
So far, December 2023 has been running nearly 5 degrees above normal. It has also been rather wet, with 5.10 inches of rain measured, while only a trace of snow has been recorded. This mild and snowless trend looks like it will persist through Christmas.
With a forecasted high pushing the 50-degree mark, the chance of a White Christmas this year is zero. Going forward, it appears that the odds will favor more wet Christmases, than white ones.
Our First Alert Weather team has you covered with the latest forecast and weather alerts into the winter and beyond.