Palladino: Forget Polls, Wins Are All That Matter To Mets, Yankees Fans
By Ernie Palladino
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The last time they rolled out a poll of any consequence, the number counters got it historically wrong.
Remember that one? Going by those polls, some nice lady was supposed to be sitting in the White House right now, presumably governing without the help of the Twittersphere. Instead, we got a wealth of comedy material, though not much in the way of competent leadership.
They all had Hillary winning -- bigly, as the HBIC (Head Blowhard In Charge) might say. But thanks to the electoral college, well, you know what happened.
The lesson here is that polls are not infallible, and reality can change them in a heartbeat. And that's why the Mets shouldn't get too comfortable with last week's Quinnipiac University poll that named them over the Yankees as New Yorkers' popular choice.
The 45-43 margin -- the other 2 percent apparently went for John Kasich -- hardly reflected a runaway victory, anyway. So Fred Wilpon and his son shouldn't start counting those ticket receipts just yet. In fact, a lot of the Mets' current popularity rests in the results of the last couple of years. People assume that last year's wild-card appearance and the previous year's World Series run logically puts the Mets in the lead for a division title and a deep playoff run.
That's exciting. And excitement makes for crowds. But here's the thing. Except for firestarter Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets still don't have a big offense. It actually looks a lot like last year's, a power-based, all-or-nothing lineup that will leave precious little margin for error for their pitching staff to work with.
Speaking of that staff, it's already hurting. The Mets open the season Monday with starter Steve Matz and reliever Seth Lugo on the disabled list, and closer Jeurys Familia suspended the first 15 games for violating the league's policy on domestic violence.
Those alone won't condemn the Mets to long-term failure. But consider this: for all the potential star power opening day starter Noah Syndergaard and cohorts Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and wild card Robert Gsellman generate, they have only pitched together as a standing unit for short periods. And nobody really knows what Wheeler will achieve in his comeback after a two-year absence.
But let's be optimistic and say the staff gets over this opening health bump, Harvey rebounds from a rough year, and the others pitch to expectations. Fans will like that. But great pitching is a taste acquired by far too few stadium-goers these days. A lot would rather see their team hit four home runs and lose 9-8 than endure a well-pitched 3-1 win devoid of offense.
Runs ultimately draw crowds. Runs generated by the long ball bring even bigger crowds.
Hit it far and often, and they will come.
That's what might enable the Yanks to flip that slender poll margin in their favor.
It won't be hard to see where they stand at midseason if kids like Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez, and Aaron Judge send enough baseballs into satellite orbits. Do that, and the Yanks will combine two great selling points -- power and young blood -- and thereby draw healthy congregations to their Bronx cathedral.
That's a big if, however. As attractive as the formula sounds, not all youngsters succeed. Judge, for instance, almost started the season in Triple-A. They're gambling that the young right fielder will find his footing early.
It's not all on the kids, however. Even if Sanchez follows last year's breathtaking 20-homer performance over 53 games with, say, a 30-homer season, and Bird and Judge produce respectable power numbers, there is still a veteran corps to worry about. The Yanks only wish Jacoby Ellsbury would live up to his contract, and that Brett Gardner and Chase Headley will turn into reliable weapons.
They didn't exactly get off to an auspicious start with a 7-3 opening day loss Sunday in Tampa Bay that featured neither a pinstriped dinger nor decent starting pitching.
One can assume that ace Masahiro Tanaka will get over Sunday's 2 2/3-inning, seven run disaster. Getting the kids to start hitting may be a bigger job. But if the two factors converge in the near future, fans will gladly overlook the rest of Joe Girardi's shaky rotation.
The seats will fill, no problem.
Chances are, they won't. The Yanks probably need another year to mature. If the Mets fail, too, the final outcome could come down to a constituency of die-hards. Yankee fans whose baseball consciousness began with Mickey Mantle and Elston Howard and grew through the Bronx Zoo and Core Four eras have a decided advantage there.
Forget the poll. As we all saw in November, some are not worth the computer screens they appear on.
Play the schedules. We'll find out who won the battle for the hearts and minds of New Yorkers at the end when they count up the attendance figures.
Until then, enjoy the new baseball season. As the song says, "Root, root, root for the home team."
That way, you have an even shot either way.
Follow Ernie on Twitter at @ErniePalladino