Schmeelk: Barring Knicks Getting Him On Their Terms, There's No Smart Trade For Irving
By John Schmeelk
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"Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it."
It is a much-repeated line and often a cliché, but one Knicks fans should embrace as so many salivate over the idea of trading for Kyrie Irving.
It's not that there aren't any conceivable trade scenarios for Irving that make sense for the Knicks. There certainly are. Unfortunately, whatever is good for New York would probably be something Cleveland wouldn't entertain.
If the Cavaliers would accept a combination of Carmelo Anthony and Willy Hernangomez, or a top-3 or top-5 protected first-round pick, for Irving, the Knicks should certainly pull the trigger. New York would get a truly positive return for Anthony while only losing Hernangomez (someone who plays center like Kristaps Porzingis eventually will) or a protected first rounder.
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Cleveland is not going to accept either one of those offers. The Cavs can sit there and wait for an offer to blow them away. They are under no obligation to trade Irving, who has two years left on his contract (plus a third in the form of a player option) and no leverage to force anything. They can trade Irving to any of the 30 teams in the NBA and he can't do anything about it. For a player of Irving's age and skill there will be no shortage of suitors with offers far better than the ones described above. The Cavs could also just wait until next offseason to move Irving when they know LeBron James' future.
The Knicks would have to come forward and offer some combination of Anthony, one or two (likely unprotected) first-round picks and a young player like Frank Ntilikina. If you're the Cavs that's a fair return for a player of Irving's skill.
It's also an offer the Knicks should refuse to make. They went down this same road with Anthony, and, to some extent, Stephon Marbury before him. At the time, the trades appeared wise, but in the end they didn't result in the only important thing: victories.
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If the Knicks move Anthony and Ntilikina and replace them on the roster with Irving, how much better will they get? It's unlikely they get much better than .500, if at all. The first problem is fit. Irving and Tim Hardaway, Jr. in the same backcourt would be so bad defensively the team would be hard pressed to win consistently.
Much like Anthony couldn't fit with Amar'e Stoudemire, there would be a similar issue here. Irving has many of the same deficiencies as Anthony in terms of being an isolation scorer and poor defender. Ntilikina's defense would be badly needed beside a defensive sieve like Irving, yet he would be part of the price to acquire him.
At this point, it also has to be fair to wonder about Irving's mindset. Why would he want to leave the Cavaliers now? It's reasonable for him to be mindful of James' potential departure from Cleveland next summer, but why now? In a weak Eastern Conference, the Cavaliers have as good if not a better chance than anyone to get to the NBA Finals next season, yet Irving would prefer to go to teams with little chance to win, like the Knicks.
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In reading an article on The Vertical by Michael Lee, it sounds like Irving would far prefer to be the star on a bad team than the second-best player to James on a potential championship squad. The Knicks should be wary of any player that thinks that way. Irving has not shown the ability to win without James.
If a trade to the Cavs' liking is pulled off, barring miracle moves by Steve Mills and Scott Perry to clear salary cap space, the Knicks would not be able to add any significant free agents for the next two seasons. The core would be Irving, Porzingis, Hardaway and Hernangomez. That is not a team that can win a round in the NBA playoffs unless Porzingis becomes a superstar sooner rather than later.
Then in the summer of 2019, Irving could become a free agent and the Knicks would risk losing him with only two seasons of .500 basketball to show for it. What would be the price of two seasons winning around 40 games? Ntilikina and one (or two) future first-round picks. Whatever draft picks the Knicks make would be worse thanks to Irving's presence. In short, what would be the point? They could be in a worse position in two years than they are now if Irving leaves.
The point in any trade shouldn't just be to add the best player. The Knicks have been down that road before. The calculation that should be made before any move is considered is if there is a realistic path for the team to become a significant winner after it is completed. If the Knicks trade for Irving, spare Porzingis becoming a superstar, the answer is there is no realistic path.
Much like after the Anthony trade, the Knicks would be handcuffed by bad contracts (then Stoudemire, and now Joakim Noah and Hardaway) that would prevent them from adding the pieces around Irving to complement his skills in the right way. The roster would also be partially depleted by those traded away for Irving. The team would be trapped between winning and rebuilding and would be on the road to nowhere once again.
It's also hard not to draw parallels to the Marbury trade. It's an extreme example but there are similarities between the two. Both young point guards (Irving 25 now, Marbury 26 at the time of his trade) would be coming home with fair questions about their mindset and personality. Irving is quirky. As recently as February, he stated he thinks the world is flat and has declined to back off those comments. It could be a meaningless throw-away line, but when you hand a franchise to a player the type of person and leader he is can be just as important as the player he is.
Both the Marbury and Anthony trades also involved the Knicks trading future first-round picks (two for Marbury, one and the right to switch another year with the Nuggets), further inhibiting their ability to add talent to the roster. It's always easy to love a trade when you send away things that aren't tangible in the present. The Marbury and Anthony trades were universally praised by Knicks fans, the same way an Irving trade would be.
Both trades also resulted in more losses than wins. If the Knicks offer too much for Irving, despite the fact that they would be getting the best player, the same thing would happen again. The fans would cheer, but the team would lose because it would lack the assets to put players around him.
For once, the Knicks need to resist chasing the star. Stick to the slow rebuild. Get the star after the young team grows together and is ready to win with him. Don't jump the gun, or the Knicks' mistakes of the last 15 years will continue to repeat themselves.
For everything Knicks, Giants, and the world of sports, follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk