Keidel: Seahawks, Patriots Will Meet In Super Bowl XLIX
By Jason Keidel
» More Columns
This is a conflicted time for the football fan. We're drooling over a most delicious final four this weekend, and the subsequent Super Bowl. Yet we have the solemn sense that the season is almost over, leading us into February, the most barren month of the year.
But let's not go there, just yet. Let's enjoy these delicious NFL dishes we call the conference championships.
Green Bay Packers (13-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Like last week, Green Bay's fortunes lie on the leg of Aaron Rodgers, the superhuman quarterback who hobbled his way past the Dallas Cowboys. Barely. The Packers were a Dez Bryant catch and reversal from a forlorn winter. (Letter of the law aside, that was a catch.) But you have to play a perfect game, make a perfect catch, to beat the aspirations and apparitions of Lambeau Field.
But this game is in Seattle, where the Super Bowl champs are chomping on all challengers. They surrendered less than seven points per game over the last six weeks of the season, then breezed by Carolina last week.
Since Week 12, the Seahawks have held teams to 3.14 yards per rush and 4.64 yards per pass attempt, both best in the NFL. And while Rodgers is literally perfect at home, he's 4-4 on the road this year, with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. (He threw 29 TD and 0 INT at Lambeau, including the playoffs.)
The consensus seems to be that the Cowboys were the one team with the wares to upset the Seahawks. A heavy dose of DeMarco Murray would keep Seattle sedated long enough to sneak out with a win. But Eddie Lacy is hardly a stiff. And Rodgers on one leg was better than Tony Romo on two.
But playing Seattle, on the road, is a different endeavor. Lacy won't find many holes through which he can run, as evidenced by his 12 rushes for 34 yards in the Packers' 36-16 opening-game loss in Seattle. And Rodgers won't find many lanes through which he can throw. But Rodgers can't ignore an entire side of the gridiron, as he did during their Week 1 matchup, in deference to Richard Sherman. No doubt Sherman is stellar, but there's a difference between respecting and revering the loquacious cornerback.
The dueling narratives are impossible to ignore. Will this game be a referendum on Rodgers' singular genius or Seattle's singular will to repeat as NFL champions, which hasn't been done in pro football in a decade?
Seattle essentially scored 24 points on the Panthers; the final touchdown came on a Cam Newton pick-six. Rodgers has a historic allergy to interceptions, so Seattle won't get any gifts. But can the Packers score enough and keep the ball long enough to outlast the Seahawks?
If Packers fans want a silver lining, the Seahawks went on their legendary defensive run against a befuddled Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Lindley, Drew Stanton and Shaun Hill. Not exactly a conga line of luminaries.
If Rodgers was healthy, the Packers would have a puncher's chance. But with his torn calf keeping him entirely in the pocket and unable to run for the occasional, crucial first down, Rodgers can't be perfect.
And it will take perfection to keep Seattle's defensive dogs at bay.
Seahawks, 24-17
Indianapolis Colts (12-6) @ New England Patriots (13-4)
Like the NFC title game, the AFC championship game is littered with subplots. And like the NFC championship game, this is a rematch of an earlier blowout, with the home team a heavy favorite yet again.
After stunning the Broncos in Denver, the Colts are loaded with house money. Or are they? Is this game against the Patriots swathed in symbolism? Is the proverbial torch being passed? Since he just beat one of the two elder statesmen of the NFL, Andrew Luck has his eyes locked on the other.
Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have swapped league MVP awards and alternated as de facto face of the NFL for the last 15 years. But both are perilously close to 40, and on the back nine of their bejeweled careers.
In comes Luck, whom everyone concedes will be the NFL star of the next decade. But the prevailing logic was that Luck had to wait another year or two before assuming the throne. Vanquishing the Broncos last week may have accelerated the process.
Sure, a final Manning-Brady showdown was the sexier matchup, the two old lions battling for one more trip to the Super Bowl. But Luck is a buck who isn't willing to wait his turn. It hurts our old-school sensibilities when our icons finally crumble.
Jonas Gray shredded the Colts for 201 yards in Week 11. But the Colts' run defense fared far better last week in Denver, while the Patriots ran the ball just nine times for 17 yards in the second half against the Ravens. And since surrendering 246 yards on the ground at New England, the Colts have yielded a way more respectable 110 rushing yards per game, going 7-1 since. But even with a sluggish running game, New England dropped 35 points on a far more robust Ravens defense.
Not to mention the Colts were covering a banged-up Julius Thomas at tight end, while the Patriots will trot out a healthy Rob Gronkowski. Indianapolis doesn't have an answer for No. 87. So even if it somehow stifles the running game, Indianapolis has to thwart the Patriots' potent passing attack. The Colts have yet to show they can do both.
If you buy the premise that the Colts are little more than a premier QB and a practice squad, then Luck will need some luck to win in Foxborough. Cynics also assert that last week was less about Luck and more about Manning in repose, the legendary quarterback finally succumbing to age and endless neck fusion surgeries.
If you buy both theories, then the Colts are in trouble. Brady showed he has ample bullets left in his blessed arm. Styles make fights, and you could argue that the Colts were tailor-made to beat the Broncos, and that Denver obliged by failing to put any pressure on the Colts' quarterback. And the Patriots have more than enough talent and temerity to keep Luck from the throne for at least one more year.
That sounds about right. The Colts are a live underdog, but the Patriots seem to have momentum, mojo and fate at their backs. I also picked a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl back in September.
Patriots, 34-24