Marist Poll Indicates De Blasio Is In Position To Win Second Term
NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) -- The latest poll indicates that Mayor Bill de Blasio is well positioned to win reelection this year.
As WCBS 880's Rich Lamb reported, Dr. Lee Miringoff said the Marist poll found that regardless of who among his known potential rivals might run – whether Republicans or Democrats – de Blasio scores way ahead.
The poll indicated that 40 percent of New York City Democrats support de Blasio, while only 9 percent each support city Comptroller Scott Stringer and former City Council Speaker Christine Quinn. Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. comes in with 8 percent, Public Advocate Letitia James with 6 percent, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) with 2 percent, and state Sen. Tony Avella (D-N.Y.) and former New York City Councilman Sal Albanese each come in with 1 percent.
Entrepreneur Michael Bass came in with less than 1 percent in the poll. A total of 23 percenf were undecided.
If de Blasio won 40 percent in a Democratic primary, he would avoid a runoff, Miringoff noted in a news release.
When the Democratic field is cut to three candidates – de Blasio, James and Stringer – de Blasio reaches 47 percent – compared with 17 percent with Stringer and 16 percent for James.
When matched up with Republicans for a general election, de Blasio comes in at 66 percent up against supermarket magnate John Catsimatidis – who ran as a Republican in 2013 and this year said he would run as a fusion candidate – and who comes in with 20 percent.
Queens City Councilman Eric Ulrich (R-32nd) would receive 18 percent up against de Blasio's 16 percent, and real estate entrepreneur Paul Massey would take 19 percent to de Blasio's 65 percent. The mayor comes in at 64 percent up against the Rev. Michel J. Faulkner with 19 percent.
The mayor's reelection bid comes amid federal and state investigations into his administration. The mayor met with federal prosecutors investigating his campaign fundraising this past Friday.
The numbers for de Blasio on that front are less promising.
"There are a lot of New Yorkers who think that either de Blasio or some of his aides have done something either illegal or unethical and that this would matter to them if there was some indictment down the road, so there is a potential cloud over the horizon," Miringoff said.
A total of 25 percent of New Yorkers who took the poll said they did not believe the mayor did anything wrong when it comes to the federal investigation into fundraising for de Blasio's nonprofit, and half – 50 percent – believe he did. Of that 50 percent, 17 percent said they think de Blasio did something illegal, and 33 percent said he did something unethical but not illegal, the poll said.
As to the mayor's aides, 53 percent think they either did something illegal in the federal case, while 17 percent say they did nothing wrong and 29 percent are unsure.
In the state probe about whether de Blasio's aides violated campaign finance laws to help Democrats get elected to the state Senate, 46 percent of respondents think de Blasio either did something illegal (17 percent), or unethical but not illegal (29 percent). Thirty-two percent believe the mayor did nothing wrong, and 22 percent are unsure, the poll said.
A total of 52 percent believe de Blasio's staff either did something illegal (22 percent) or unethical but not illegal (30 percent) in the state case.
As to whether the scandals would hurt the mayor's chances for reelection, 51 percent said even if there was an indictment of one or more of the mayor's aides, it would not matter very much (24 percent) or at all (27 percent) for tehri vote. A total of 44 percent said it would impact their vote a great deal (27 percent) or a good amount (17 percent).
Barring an indictment linked to the de Blasio administration, Miringoff said de Blasio's path to a second term seems clear.