Chatelain: NL East Has Proven To Be Much Tougher Than Mets Hoped
By Ryan Chatelain
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When the Phillies took two of three games from the Mets in early April, it was easy to dismiss and chalk up as one of the quirks that happen over the course of a long, trying baseball season. Despite the outcome, practically everyone assumed the Mets were still the far superior team and that the Phillies just had a lucky weekend.
Fast-forward six weeks, and the Mets are tied with the Phillies for second place and only a half-game up on the fourth-place Marlins.
What is going on here?
When it came to forecasting the NL East, there seemed to be a consensus among the experts: The Mets and Nationals would rule it, the Phillies and Braves would be so terrible that New York and Washington would pile up gaudy win totals, and the Marlins would fall somewhere in between, but with a losing record.
However, what was expected to be baseball's most top-heavy division has somehow become its most topsy-turvy. Entering Tuesday's games, four of the East's five teams were four games above .500 or better. Only the Braves have met everyone's exceedingly low expectations.
The fact that the NL East is shaping up to be a beast should be added to the growing list of things that have not gone smoothly for the Mets in their quest to return to the World Series.
MORE: Kallet: Mets Face Tall Order Against Scherzer, Gonzalez And Strasburg
This is anything but a two-horse race between the Amazins' and Nationals, who square off in a three-game series starting Tuesday night.
The Phillies, especially, have altered the reputation of the division. They were coming off a 99-loss season and were thought to have too many youngsters to contend. They weren't just supposed to be bad; many expected them to be baseball's most dreadful team.
"To be fair, there should be no expectation of the 2016 Phillies contending or even coming close to it," Sports Illustrated wrote in its season preview.
The Mets sure as heck aren't buying that now. Because instead of beating up on the Phillies this season, as many predicted they would do, the Mets are just 3-3 against their rivals. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is 4-2 against the Nationals.
The Phillies (22-17) have scored the second fewest runs in baseball, a sign that they should fade at some point. But when? We're closing in on the quarter point of the season, and they just keep finding ways to win. And regardless of their record, they have two young starting pitchers in Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez who can go toe to toe with anyone the Mets or Nationals send to the mound.
The Marlins (21-17), meanwhile, have more balance than Philadelphia and could be trouble over the long haul.
We're finally seeing what Miami can do when both ace pitcher Jose Fernandez and Hurculean slugger Giancarlo Stanton are healthy at the same time, which includes one stretch when the Marlins won 11 of 12.
Fernandez is 5-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 69 strikeouts (second most in the National League). And Stanton has already belted 11 homers, third most in the NL.
But the Marlins, who won two out of three against the Mets last month, have a host of other hitters that offer a nice blend of power (Justin Bour, Marcell Ozuna) and average (Martin Prado, Christian Yelich, Ozuna and J.T. Realmuto).
Not to mention, Don Mattingly has yet to have a losing season as a manager.
And Washington (23-15) isn't doing the Mets any favors, either. Sure, the Nats were expected to be strong this season. But they were heavily hyped last year, too, before they missed the postseason and fired their manager.
They now have Dusty Baker, a skipper known for turning around teams, and are winning games with a similar formula as the Mets -- inconsistent offense but dominant starting pitching. Gio Gonzalez, Joe Ross, Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark all have ERAs of 3.10 or lower, and Max Scherzer struck out half of Detroit in his last start.
The Mets (21-16), who have lost four of their last five, will get a good gauge of how they match up to this year's version of the Nationals with six games over the next two weeks.
Win four of those six, and New York will instantly be viewed again as the favorite to win the East.
Win two or fewer, then the Mets just might find themselves in a fight to stay out of fourth place.
Thank goodness for the Braves.
Follow Ryan on Twitter at @RyanChatelain