Lichtenstein: 7 Fearless Predictions For Low-Flying Jets Season
By Steve Lichtenstein
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With the preseason mercifully at our backs, it's time to get serious about pro football.
The Jets, coming off a 10-6 campaign, figure to be one of the more intriguing teams in the league this year.
I know of many who see this iteration as destined for the playoffs, even though this same core couldn't get it done last season with a much easier slate of opponents and relative immunity from the decimating injury bug. They believe this veteran group will improve in coach Todd Bowles' second season and that they have the appropriate balance to contend.
Then there are the pessimists, those who have fallen hard so often in this franchise's tortured past whenever they got their hopes up. They look at the first six games — five playoff teams and a trip to the haunted house in Buffalo — and worry that this season will be over before all the leaves have fallen.
Most likely this Jets season will play out somewhere in the middle. Win some, lose some.
Much of this season's direction, as it is with every team, will depend on the play of the quarterback.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is coming off a career year (3,905 yards, 31 touchdowns) and then a docile summer while holding out for more money as a free agent, will be 34 years old in November.
How he and his teammates fare this season is anybody's guess, but I'm going to look into my crystal ball and give you seven fearless predictions:
1) The Special Teams Will Be Improved
Thursday's ugly 14-6 preseason loss in Philadelphia notwithstanding (any sentence that includes the word "preseason" should automatically be followed by "notwithstanding"), the Jets should be in good shape under new special teams coordinator Brant Boyer.
Rookie punter Lachlan Edwards, the Jets' seventh-round selection in the 2016 draft, has a superior leg over his predecessor Ryan Quigley. The combination of Quigley and a disgraceful punt coverage unit led to a league-worst 37.2 net yard average last season. Only the Colts allowed more than the Jets' two punt returns for touchdowns. The Jets added some speed to help Boyer fix this mess.
In their own return game, the Jets ranked 26th in average yardage on kickoffs and employed the master of the unnecessary fair catch — Jeremy Kerley — as a punt returner.
Look for the Jets to finally make some big special teams plays of their own this season. Undrafted rookie Jalin Marshall, assuming he makes the final cut, will provide a spark every so often with field-changing returns.
2) The Corners Will Be Lit Up
This is not a knock on Darrelle Revis, one of the best cornerbacks of all time and who is still playing at a high level at age 31, but I have to wonder how much of last season's struggles against certain elite receivers was due to his injured wrist versus Father Time.
Again, Revis is coming off an excellent season highlighted by five interceptions and a league-low 46.5 percent completion rate when he was targeted. However, it will be interesting to see how much help he will require right off the bat against Cincinnati's A.J. Green and Buffalo's Sammy Watkins.
Even with Revis, the fact remains that opposing quarterbacks have other outlets, and the Jets do not possess the depth at corner to match up. The aptly named Buster Skrine was a rare underperforming exception in a fantastic 2015 offseason haul by general manager Mike Maccagnan. Per Pro Football Focus, Skrine, playing mostly in the nickel package, surrendered over 700 yards when targeted with an opposing passer rating of 101.1.
With Antonio Cromartie jettisoned, Skrine has emerged as a full-time starter over Marcus Williams, who led the Jets with six interceptions a year ago.
Behind them is a big question mark. The Jets like rookie Juston Burris, their fourth-round pick, but he will be targeted if he needs to play a heavy snap load. Dee Milliner and Dexter McDougle, remnants from the John Idzik Error, spend way more time in the trainer's room than on the field.
Barring a rash of injuries, the Jets will be facing a far better quarterback crop than last season. They weren't even able to avoid getting an angry Tom Brady twice.
The Jets were in every game last season. That won't be the case this year.
3) Calvin Pryor Will Make The Pro Bowl
The third-year pro and 2014 first round pick — Idzik's best move by a landslide — is ready for a breakout year at safety.
Pryor combines a savageness defending the run game with athleticism in coverage and on blitzes. He will be the Jets' best defensive player this season.
The only variable is whether he can stay healthy for a full 16 games playing that style. He missed three games with an ankle sprain a year ago — the Jets went 1-2 in those contests.
4) The Pass Rush Will Produce Fewer Than 35 Sacks
The conventional wisdom is that the Jets' front line is the strength of the team and that Gang Green's defense will make the leap to a level somewhere a little below Denver's.
I'm not buying it.
While Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams will be tough to run against, the Jets still don't have the speed edge rusher that is most feared these days.
Wilkerson, the only member of the group who has ever reached double-digit sack totals in a season, is returning from a broken leg suffered in last season's finale in Buffalo and is more brute force than whip.
I was hopeful that Darron Lee would develop into that role when the Jets selected him 20th overall in this year's draft, but Bowles seems to project him more as an inside cover linebacker with some blitz responsibilities than as a consistent edge rusher.
When Richardson returns following his Week 1 suspension, the Jets will play more of a 4-3 base. That may be the right call, but the Jets will still need to send extra bodies on a fairly high basis to get to the quarterback.
5) The Ground Game Will Be Grounded
The Jets basically traded Chris Ivory for Matt Forte this offseason. They got more of a dual-threat runner/receiver in Forte in exchange for a hard-nosed between-the-tackles banger that was Ivory's, uh, forte.
The NFL has historically not been kind to running backs on the wrong side of 30 years old. The Jets would be pressing their luck if they tried to force-feed Forte given their question marks on the offensive line.
Fortunately, Bilal Powell returned to give Forte some breaks, but he's pretty much Forte Light, no longer a change of pace.
Since no one left has Ivory's ability to gain yards after contact, expect a larger than usual number of tackles for loss. The ball is crystal clear on this one: The Jets will fail to achieve a 4.0 yards-per-carry average this season.
6) Ryan Fitzpatrick Will Not Last The Season
Fitzpatrick missed about three quarters of action in total last season. With all his running around trying to extend plays (and then not sliding at the end of them), he was extremely lucky that he avoided a major calamity.
Even if Fitzpatrick maintains his good fortune in 2016, at some point this season, the Jets will need their backup quarterback to mop up.
Whether that will be Geno Smith, Bryce Petty or both (Petty's shoulder injury in Philadelphia Thursday could make him eligible for a short-term injured reserve designation and give the Jets roster room to keep four quarterbacks), that will be decided by Maccagnan in the coming days.
Fitzpatrick had a magical ride last fall, leading the Jets to five consecutive victories and to the brink of a postseason berth before faltering in Buffalo.
His limitations -- an inability to complete passes travelling greater than 20 yards and poor decision-making under pressure -- were on full display in that deciding game. They will become more apparent early this season against such stiff competition.
If healthy, Fitzpatrick won't be pulled — that's just how the "the player that puts us in the best position to win" mentality of coaches is practiced. But there will come a time — it may not be until New Year's Day — when Bowles and Maccagnan will want to take a look at what they've got for the future.
7) The Jets Will Finish 7-9
Admittedly, this one is cloudy. It has a two-game margin of error.
The Jets have weapons on both sides of the ball, but this is a quarterback-driven league. If yours is, at best, average, your ceiling is low unless you have an all-time defense.
The Jets are not one of those teams and will take a step back this season.
For a FAN's perspective of the Nets, Jets and the NHL, follow Steve on Twitter @SteveLichtenst1.