Winter 2016: What To Expect
NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) -- Falling leaves will eventually be replaced by falling snow.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center shared its 2016 winter outlook Thursday, CBS2's Vanessa Murdock reported.
The outlook predicts that a weak La Nina will develop for a short time.
A La Nina occurs when cold water builds up in the central Pacific Ocean, which impacts weather in the United States.
In general, La Nina favors cold, wet winters in the northern U.S. and warm, dry winters in the south.
But in the Tri-State Area, there isn't a strong relationship between La Nina and winter weather. So, the CPC believes there are equal chances that both temperatures and precipitation could be above or below normal.
Murdock predicted it will be an average winter with some cold breaks and snow, perhaps even a nor'easter.
In an average winter, people in the Tri-State Area shovel just over two feet of snow.
For some perspective, the earliest measurable snowfall on record fell on Oct. 15, 1876.
On average, it isn't until November 20 that those first flakes will blanket Central Park.