Vladimir Putin's playbook in Syria
Russian President Vladimir Putin's intervention in Syria to prop up the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is following a playbook he first used during the Second Chechen War at the turn of the century.
Putin's model of Chechnya involved waging "two different wars - against extremists and against opposition forces," said CBS News Senior National Security Analyst Juan Zarate. The strategy: use brutal and overwhelming force, attack the moderates and alternatives to the ruling regime, and then change the narrative of the war.
"Chechnya was wracked with human rights abuses and atrocities and bombed-out cities like Grozny. [The Russians] didn't care," Zarate explained. "The narrative has to be, 'It's either this regime and what we're doing or these violent radical terrorists.' That's exactly what Putin's doing here."
The situation in Syria bears some resemblance to the conditions of the Second Chechen War, when Russia sent troops into the area to fight an invasion by Islamic radicals and Chechen separatists and launched a major air campaign.
In Syria's case, Russian military jets began carrying out airstrikes at the end of September, claiming to target fighters for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) that the U.S. is also fighting. But many of those strikes appear to be aimed at weakening moderate opposition groups funded by the U.S. Putin is arguing that the strikes will help efforts to reach a political settlement in Syria.
"When a division of international terrorists stands near the capital, then there is probably little desire for the Syrian government to negotiate, most likely feeling itself under siege in its own capital," the Russian president said in an interview with Russian state television that aired over the weekend.
Iran has also poured hundreds of fighters into north and central Syria under cover from Russia's air campaign.
"The Russians and the Iranians are aligned here very neatly and closely supporting Assad," Zarate said. "They've got the shock troops and the ground troops and advisors on the ground helping the Assad forces defend their territory, attack these opposition forces. Russia is providing the airpower and a lot of the political and diplomatic muscle."
Zarate said Putin's actions have forced the U.S. to "draw some battle lines ourselves."
The U.S. has played a largely hands-off role in the Syrian conflict, instead focusing its efforts on bombing ISIS. Last week, it ended a $500 million effort to train and equip moderate Syrian rebels to help fight Assad's regime. The program had yielded just four or five trained fighters who remained on the battlefield a year after its inception. Instead, the U.S. is dropping arms and ammunition for the rebels.
"We're now being forced to draw that battle line saying, 'of course we're going to support those on the ground who have been with us who are now under assault.' Their main battle at this point is against Assad, [and] also fighting off the Islamic forces," Zarate said.
ISIS is also moving closer to the major city of Aleppo, and Russia is doing little to stop it, making for a battlefield with many moving parts.
"The reality, though, is the Russians are dictating what's happening on the ground and they're forcing not just that to shape American policy, but they're also forcing the diplomatic and political dialogue to run through Moscow," Zarate said.