Virginia losses force Democrats to rethink pitch to voters in 2022

Republican Glenn Youngkin's win in Virginia's governor race and the tighter than expected results in New Jersey's governor race have Democrats rethinking their pitch to voters for 2022, and energizing Republicans in their goal to take back the House and Senate.

Republicans also made history by electing Winsome Sears as Virginia's first Black woman lieutenant governor, and Jason Miyares as the first Latino attorney general. The party is also on track to tie or take the majority in Virginia's House of Delegates, according to the Associated Press.

Youngkin closed his campaign by focusing on two issues: the economy and education. He promised to repeal Virginia's grocery tax and to lower the cost of living.

He told Virginians that parents should be involved in school curriculums, said he'd respond to school lockdowns due to COVID-19, and he shared their outrage at school board meetings in northern Virginia over "critical race theory" and the general teaching of systemic racial inequalities. Critical race theory is not a part of the curriculum in the state of Virginia.

By contrast, his opponent and former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe often tried to tie Youngkin to Mr.Trump and framed Youngkin as someone who would restrict abortion rights.

In a CBS News exit poll on Tuesday, respondents picked the economy/taxes and education as their top issues, followed by COVID-19 and abortion.

"We ran a very local campaign… [McAuliffe] ran a national campaign against somebody that wasn't on the ballot, talking about issues that people didn't care about," Jeff Roe, the Youngkin campaign's chief strategist, told CBS News before the race was called. 

Roe added that the campaign's appeal to independents and disaffected Democrats would be crucial to their win, in addition to the political environment created by Mr. Biden's ratings. 

Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership group, which supports more centrist Republicans, said members of Congress told her Youngkin provides "a perfect model of how to run" as a Republican in 2022, especially when it comes to Mr. Trump. 

"Youngkin didn't hug him and he didn't criticize him. He talked about the issues that Trump championed when he was president, which most people like. It was fascinating," Chamberlain told CBS News. "He walked the line perfectly to get both sides."

The Republican State Legislature Committee, the GOP campaign arm for state races, wrote in a memo that their ads tying local Democrats to Mr. Biden and national Democrats early in the summer proved to be crucial once his approval ratings plummeted.

Democrats were able to retain some of their competitive northern Virginia delegate seats, but lost seats in Prince William county, Virginia Beach and southern Virginia. 

Democratic lawmakers and campaign strategists say President Biden's declining approval ratings and the lack of passed legislation on hard or "social" infrastructure created an inability for Virginia Democratic candidate and former Governor Terry McAuliffe to effectively advocate for continued Democratic control.

"We do know these races continue to get nationalized. And what I heard [when] I was out campaigning for the ticket was, 'Hey, you guys got the White House, the Senate, the House. When are you going to get more things done?" said Virginia Democratic Senator Mark Warner.

Lucy Solomon, president of Indivisible, an organization that supports progressive primary challengers and incumbents, said the party has to learn from the movement of white women towards Youngkin by working on "issues that matter to working families," such as universal pre-K and family medical leave. 

"I hope Democrats realize, especially the conservative Democrats who have held legislation hostage, that voters really expect our coalition to take action," she told CBS News.

Third Way, a moderate organization, said Democrats need to correct an "unforced error" of not delivering on Mr. Biden's "Build Back Better" agenda. But they noted there is a lack of awareness about his agenda, or "misconceptions," such as that it would raise the deficit and that it would not provide a tax cut.

A memo and partisan poll by the House GOP campaign arm in October also found voters think Democrats' agenda would raise taxes and not bring their cost of living down. 

House Republican strategists note that Youngkin's win, and the tight margins in New Jersey's race, show two Democratic states that shifted 10 to 12 points away from Democrats and Mr. Biden in 2020. 

On Wednesday morning, the National Republican Congressional Committee added 13 seats to its target list. The House GOP-backed Congressional Leadership Fund shared a list of 50 incumbent Democratic House seats that were carried by Mr. Trump, or won by Mr. Biden by 14 points or less.

"If Republicans can fight and win in trenches so blue that Joe Biden won them by 10 points, then Republicans will be bringing the House battlefield to a map far wider than Democrats are ready to accept," said CLF President Dan Conston. 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy predicted Wednesday that Democrats would lose more than 60 seats, just shy of what they lost in 2010. He also Republicans would introduce a "parents bill of rights," taking a page from Youngkin's campaign playbook.

"If you're a Democrat and President Biden won your seat by 16 points, you're in a competitive race next year. You are no longer safe," McCarthy said.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Sean Patrick Maloney said in a statement that McCarthy "is no Glenn Youngkin," but conceded Democrats have "a lot to learn form this election." He said "it's time to deliver" on Mr. Biden's "full agenda," highlighting health and economic issues. House Democrats know that to succeed we must listen to the voters and deliver real results that address their concerns."

Alan He contributed to this report.